2021 Budget. Presentations from the Departments are scheduled for Aug 17, 18, 19. The budget guidance to the Departments from the Council includes factoring in a cost of living increase from 1-3%.
An increase would be dependent on the status of the 2019 budget and revenue projections for 2021 and 2022. Copies of the guidance and planning documents below:
Brown County GIS System. Includes 5 years of data on assessments, tax payments, and description of properties.
Overview of the process. The Indiana Association of Realtors provides information on sales to include the breakdown by counties. The county assessor reviews sales by “neighborhoods” that cover an area broader than the immediate area in order to identify the trend of sales. The calculation of assessed value accounts for “outliers” — property sold statistically higher than the norm. The median value (the middle point where half of the homes are higher and half are lower), is used to calculate the assessment.
A further check on the assessment is for the property owners to obtain an estimate on market value from local realtors.
The County Auditor uses the information provided by the assessment to calculate the tax payment and the County Treasurer bills the property owners and collects the payments.
MORE INFO – Department Local Government Finance (DLGF)
The Atlantic was founded in 1857. Their December 2019 Issue: The Atlantic Devotes Its December Issue to a Special Report: “How to Stop a Civil War” Essays consider how America is coming apart—and prospects for rebuilding a more civil, functional, and unified society.
June 2020 Issue Atlantic – Special Preview. We Are Living in a Failed State. The coronavirus didn’t break America. It revealed what was already broken. By George Packer
When the virus came here, it found a country with serious underlying conditions, and it exploited them ruthlessly. Chronic ills—a corrupt political class, a sclerotic bureaucracy, a heartless economy, a divided and distracted public—had gone untreated for years. We had learned to live, uncomfortably, with the symptoms. It took the scale and intimacy of a pandemic to expose their severity—to shock Americans with the recognition that we are in the high-risk category.
The nationally representative poll of 1,000 members of the American public found troubling gaps in their knowledge of American history and government, as well as constitutional rights. One in 10 think the Declaration of Independence freed slaves in the Confederate states and almost 1 in 5 believe the first 10 amendments of the U.S. Constitution are called the Declaration of Independence instead of the Bill of Rights.
In [the] 2018 version of the Woodrow Wilson foundation test, only 13% of Americans could accurately tell you when the Constitution was ratified, 60% didn’t know who the U.S. fought in World War II, and only 24% correctly identified a single thing Ben Franklin was famous for. (Some 37% believed he invented the lightbulb.) In the 2019 version of the survey, only 43% knew that President Wilson was the U.S. commander-in-chief during World War I, which was particularly galling to the poll sponsors.
As a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Brown County Music Center (BCMC) can’t make their mortgage payments. On April 15, 2020, the county council approved a loan for $150,000 to pay the next three months interest payments.
The $150K was borrowed from the county motor vehicle highway (MVH) fund which has to be reimbursed by the end of December. A six-month extension can be granted.
The city of Indianapolis and its tourism industry are bracing for budget shortfalls stemming from the coronavirus pandemic, an unknown economic impact that has already prompted a multimillion dollar budget cut for the city’s marketing agency and hiring freezes elsewhere.
Convention and visitor bureaus throughout the state are going to have to rethink their mission, Hicks said. “I think this is an existential moment for the tourism industry and the way it’s supported in the state,” he said, noting a potential need to end marketing efforts in smaller counties and spend the money in more efficient ways.
Questions
Does the county have a legal liability to pay the mortgage? No. Per councilman Darren Byrd who is also a member of the Maple Leaf Management Committee, “This (150K) was an emergency loan to make the interest-only payments. It wasn’t done because of an obligation; just to mitigate a disaster. As with any mortgage, default could lead to eventual foreclosure.“
How will the 150K loan be paid back, when, and by whom?
Are county taxpayers legally obligated to pay the mortgage?
No. Per councilman Darren Byrd who is also a member of the Maple Leaf Management Committee.
Would a default negatively impact the county bond rating?
Yes. Per councilman Darren Byrd who is also a member of the Maple Leaf Management Committee, a “foreclosure could have a negative rating effect.”
Why would a default affect the credit rating? The county only loses a marketing budget for tourism which is a relatively small contributor to the county tax base.
What is the impact of a negative bond ranting? Would this lead to higher interest rates being paid for loans and possibly make it difficult to even borrow money?
If there was a downside to a default, was this fact and the details communicated by the attorney (s) to county government officials?
If taxpayers are not currently liable for paying the debt as currently structured in contracts, can this be changed to obligate the taxpayers?
Will there be a recurring need to loan money from the MVH fund and then pay it back with other tax money? Is this a work-around to claim that income and property tax is not being used to pay the mortgage or any other operating expenses the venue may need?
If a default on the mortgage, what happens? Would the venue appraise – at or over the amount borrowed? Is it correct that all the revenue from the innkeeper’s tax would be transferred to the bank until the debt is settled?
The Convention Visitors Bureau (CVB) relies on revenue from the innkeeper’s tax for marketing and promotion of tourism – that includes funding of the Visitor Center. Will they also be requesting a subsidy from the county taxpayers?
What Is a Credit Rating?A credit rating is a quantified assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation. A credit rating can be assigned to any entity that seeks to borrow money—an individual, corporation, state or provincial authority, or sovereign government.
What is a Bond Rating .A bond rating is a way to measure the creditworthiness of a bond, which corresponds to the cost of borrowing for an issuer. These ratings typically assign a letter grade to bonds that indicates their credit quality.
Health and Safety. Without a vaccine, treatment, immunity, what will be the risk from tourists to county residents? Brown County has one of the oldest populations in the state.
Promise to County Taxpayers
At the time this project was approved by the county council, Council President Dave Critser identified the worst-case scenario as the economy crashing and “told the audience twice that income and property taxes would not be used to pay for the venue.”
Resident Tim Clark asked if the resolution could be changed to put county taxpayers on the hook if the project runs into “difficulties or the strategy changes.” … Critser said that would require a new resolution to be passed, and county commissioner Diana Biddle said that the county “can’t do a bait-and-switch that way.” … “They can’t choose to add the property taxpayers later,” Matthas said. “They would have had to get it approved now, and they didn’t.”
“With the loan, the bank requires only the innkeepers tax and the mortgage as collateral (Herring)
County commissioner Diana Biddle asked attorney Pitman if Maple Leaf debt could ever be put on the county taxpayer in the form property or income tax
… Pitman said the debt would not be put on the county taxpayer; it’s on the innkeepers tax. Pitman said the loan documents will limit the financial liability only to Maple Leaf revenue and the innkeepers tax.
Commissioner Dave Anderson said there are no liabilities to county taxpayers under the deal. “This is a good thing for Brown County. I can see no exposure to liability for our taxpayers, and that’s a biggie for me,” he said.
The innkeeper’s tax is collateral for the loan. The innkeeper’s tax, by statute, is a county asset and is controlled by the county council that would be surrendering this asset. On default, the bank then takes control of the revenue stream provided by the innkeeper’s tax.
If the county directly opted to borrow money via a bond for this venue (as opposed to using the revenue from the innkeeper’s tax as collateral), taxpayers would have had the option for a remonstrance. The Redevelopment Commission (RDC) was the lead with this option and was doing the analysis and planning for the public meetings. The RDC was cut out of the process when it was determined that the innkeeper’s tax could be used as collateral.
Summary of issues impacting the decision-making process
Leverage. The bank does not want the building and it may be difficult to dispose of the venue with the uncertainties in the market. In addition to the recent 90 days adjustments in payments (interest only), what additional options is the Bank willing to consider?
What’s the new norm?
Best Case. The pandemic is temporary and things return to normal. County funding helps bridge the gap. How much should the county fund and for how long? Will the taxpayers be reimbursed?
The situation does not return to normal. How long do county taxpayers subsidize the venue? What additional funding would be needed to support the venue? WIll the county also be asked to fund marketing for tourism?
Fairness and Equity. Is a subsidy for this venue and tourism industry fair? Most county businesses and most if not all county taxpayers are financially impacted by the pandemic.
Cost-Benefit. The justification for the subsidy (150K) per Commissioner Biddle: “…the music center is part of the foundation for the county’s economic recovery so it’s important for the county to step in and help now.”
Tourism – $42.7 Million in gross revenue, 543 jobs, avg salary of 19K. (2017 Study – Rockport Analytics)
County residents – Adjusted Gross Income in 2018 – $408 million, reported on 7,000 tax returns. (About 7.400 residents in the labor force with over half commuting outside the county for work. (StatsIndiana).
County funded by income and property tax. The “State” is primarily funded by “Sales Tax” and Income tax. Thus the incentive for an innkeepers tax to promote tourism.
Patrons of the Arts. Can money be raised from supporters of this venue and other benefactors?
Financials. What is the financial condition of the venue? What financial information has been made available? Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Profit and Loss statement. Accounts Payable and Receivable reports? Cash flow and break-even analysis?
Community Support. What is the community support for a bailout? What is the risk of protests and boycotts by county taxpayers of an industry that is a relatively small contributor to the overall “county” economy? Will the issue create animosity against tourism?
Political Change. Will the issue results in a demand for political change? The Republican party has a monopoly on political power and were vocal advocates for this Music Venue. All three commissions and 6/7 council members that voted for this project are Republican.
Covid-19 Impacts. Uncertainty is expected to remain until there are effective treatments, a vaccine, wide-scale testing, and herd immunity.
Impacts on Large 2,000 seat venues? – TBD
Brown County has one of the oldest populations in Indiana. Three gas stations, one Pharmacy, and one grocery store. No hospitals and no 24×7 medical clinic. What will be the risks posed from tourists to the county?
County Finances and Tax Increases. What will be the drop in income and property tax? How much will the county be able to borrow? How much can the county increase property and income taxes? What expenses can be cut?
Brown County is a 2.0 . As a former defense and military analyst, assessing the capabilities of groups, organizations, countries (e.g., systems) was one of the tools of the trade.
One of the simpler models for assessing capability used a scale of 1 (low) to 5 (high capability). The norm is a 2.0 which can be defined as “good enough – it works for us.”
In the case of Brown County, we have a “closed” political system as a result of a one-party monopoly on political power which can be reinforced in every election.
The plus side for some in this closed system is that major decisions, despite any opposition, can be made relatively quickly with no repercussions at the ballot box. The downside is that this is less effective than an “open” system that can assimilate feedback and works to identify the best solutions for the county.
The risk of a closed system is not only suboptimal decisions and abuse of power which is a given, but you can build up a simmering opposition to the status quo that can eventually lead to conflict. This conflict can be expressed on social media, at public meetings, and through protests and boycotts. In a military context as we’ve seen throughout the world, a closed system provides the motivation for insurgencies, revolutions, and war.
In anticipating the local impacts that the Covid-19 crisis is having and may have on the county, to include potentially unprecedented amounts of borrowing, potential tax increases and subsidies for favored projects, groups and industries, we do have choices.
For over the past two years, volunteers in the community have been working to discover and develop a more collaborative and transparent leadership approach. We are in the “test” or proof-of-concept phase. More info via the link below:
A Way Ahead – Post COVID-19 recovery and prosperity
by Tim J. Clark
The government response (national, state, county) to the pandemic has been overly influenced by fear, emotion, politics, and ignorance.
Transitioning from Response to Recovery – Getting back to work
The 24×7 media coverage that thrives on controversy does not help. I support the assessment identified in the article in Quality Digest magazine – “Tracking Covid-19 – How to let the data tell you what lies ahead” that “case isolation, home quarantine, and social distancing of those at risk of severe disease—make up an optimal mitigation policy that will guide getting the country back to work.” The issue that is just starting to surface is about community (herd) immunity.
Community (Herd) Immunity. A situation in which a sufficient proportion of a population is immune to an infectious disease (through vaccination and/or prior illness) to make its spread from person to person unlikely. Even individuals not vaccinated (such as newborns and those with chronic illnesses) are offered some protection because the disease has little opportunity to spread within the community. Also known as herd immunity. Reference: CDC
Economic Depression
I’m also following the discussions on the macro-economics. The current situation has been assessed as being similar to the period between 1930-45. The Depression (1930) contributed to conditions that created conflict between competing powers that led to WWII, followed by a “new democratic world order” led by the U.S where the dollar became the reserve currency for the world. In some future scenarios, the pandemic is projected to lead to a “depression,” heightened by tensions between the U.S. and the emerging power (China).
Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio participated in a Tedx discussion on the topic – “What coronavirus means for the global economy” where he states that “This is not a recession; this is a breakdown. You’re seeing the same thing that happened in the 1930s.” Comments on the discussion at Forbes:
On a brighter note, “Dalio flagged the opportunity for entrepreneurship as the catalyst for recovery: “The greatest force through Time is human inventiveness. The greatest force of that is reinventiveness.”
” …. However, other experts believe this financial crisis is unique because it is a result of a health issue, a global pandemic, rather than an otherwise unstable or unproductive economy. As such, they are more optimistic that the economy will rebound quickly once the coronavirus pandemic subsides.”
“I would point to the difference between this and a normal recession: There is nothing fundamentally wrong with our economy,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told NBC’s “Today” in an interview last month. In a follow-up interview with CNBC on Thursday, Powell reiterated his belief that the U.S. economy can have a “robust” rebound once the pandemic ends, though he is reluctant to offer a precise timetable for how long that could take.
Brown County
Regarding Brown County, the Community Organizations Active In Disaster (COAD) works within a four-phase cycle: Preparation-Mitigation, Preparedness, Response (the phase we are in now), and Recovery.
An optimal “Recovery” strategy is not likely without a successful transition to a “whole-of-county” strategy and plan that is supported by the Brown County community.
The county is funded by income and property tax and a depression/recession will reduce revenue. The county cannot print money and options of increasing revenue include a combination of cuts, borrowing, and raising property taxes. The most optimistic and unrealistic scenario is that things go back to the way they were – this may be wishful thinking.
Regarding increasing county debt, the “temptation” may be to borrow money to fund a variety of special projects with the promise of economic miracles.
The economic engine for the county is residents that reported adjusted gross income (AGI) of $401 million dollars in 2017. Tourism has been identified as the economic engine for the town of Nashville. In contrast, in 2017, the gross revenue generated from tourism was estimated by Rockport Analytics at $42.7 million with a total economic impact of $22.6 million.
Relying on past county methods and practices to determine the priorities and direction of the county will likely be the preferred and initial approach. However, this approach is not capable of producing optimal results where everyone benefits, or at least, are not any worse off in the long-term.
Systems determine 85-100% of results and the capability of a system can be assessed on a scale of 1 (low) to 5 (high). Brown County is governed through a one-party monopoly on political power that represents a closed system which would be assessed at a Level 2.
A Way Ahead?
Albert Einstein remarked that “We can not solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them.” For over the past two years, volunteers in the community with the support of the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs, Purdue and Ball State, have been working to develop a new leadership approach as part of the Hometown Collaborative Initiative (HCI). It introduces an open-system approach to economic growth and community development.
The initiative is referred to as the Brown County Leader Network. We are in the process of developing a website to help share information. In the interim, additional information is provided at the following. “Brown County Leader Network.”
Small Business. Below is information for small business owners (under 500 employees). Also included is information that addresses unemployment details for both workers and employers.
For Government, the Office of Community and Rural Affairs (OCRA) is also a source of funding for infrastructure-related (mainly water and stormwater), projects, but also public facilities and main street revitalization programs. (The county is in the process of applying for a grant for Phase II of a Stormwater project in Helmsburg.)
Sign-up for the newsletter to stay updated on likely future support to benefit Indiana communities adversely affected by COVID-19. It is expected that the balance of current funds (in the millions) will be redirected into a program whose sole purpose will be to benefit Indiana communities adversely affected by COVID-19.
To foster, preserve and promote the rich history of Brown County, Indiana;
Encouraging an interest in local history;-Identifying significant historical sites and items found within the county.
Providing documentation and records of said significant locations/items;
To promote and encourage an interest in Brown County history on the local, national, and international levels, benefiting citizens and visitors, alike;
Appreciate the impact made by the arts, crafts, and music inspired by the natural beauty and nurtured by the creative spirit, and how each of these continue to be a part of our rich history;
Educate and inspire a lifelong interest in Brown County history in persons of all ages;
Aid in the protection of the historical, cultural, and natural assets of Brown County;
Share with the members of the Peaceful Valley Heritage, Inc. and all interested parties, all matters historic found within Brown County.
More than 50,000 scientists and doctors, as well as more than 682,000 ordinary people, have signed the Great Barrington Declaration opposing a second COVID-19 lockdown because they see it doing much more harm than good.
Atlas may be having an ‘I told you so’ moment. The Great Barrington Declaration, spearheaded by epidemiologists from Harvard, Oxford and Stanford, recognizes the ‘devastating effects’ of lockdowns, particularly on the working class, and argues that the ‘cure’ has likely been worse than the disease. A top WHO official also flipped the organization’s position on lockdowns in an interview with Spectator TV, warning that they should be used as a ‘last resort’ and that their effects on the world economy should not be underestimated.‘All of the things that I have said — that were all based on the data and my ongoing conversations with epidemiologists for months, almost on a day-to-day basis — have been finally openly agreed upon by many of the top scientists and epidemiologists from all over the world,’ Atlas says. ‘This policy is the science…and it’s common sense and logic.’
It’s now October. We are starting to get an evidence-based picture of how school reopenings and remote learning are going (those photos of hallways don’t count), and the evidence is pointing in one direction. Schools do not, in fact, appear to be a major spreader of COVID-19.
Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings, and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice,” it continues.
Oct 5, 2020. Against FearPresident Trump’s handling of his coronavirus diagnosis models positive masculinity—rational and unbowed. Heather Mac Donald , City Journal, Covid-19 Politics and law
A “headline” on Feb 24, 2020. Minneapolis St Paul Business Journal. U of M disease expert: Coronavirus won’t be contained, so here’s what to do With vaccines still months away, Osterholm — who before his U of M job was chief epidemiologist for the state of Minnesota — says a broader outbreak is likely. So he and Olshaker have some advice for coping:
This may be the most comprehensive article on the issues that provide the insights on strategies and expected results.
“If you agree with this article and want the US Government to take action, please sign the White House petition to implement a Hammer-and-Dance Suppression strategy.”
“If you are an expert in the field and want to criticize or endorse the article or some of its parts, feel free to leave a private note here or contextually and I will respond or address.”
Mar 25, 2020. Atlantic. How the Pandemic Will End The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world … and One could easily conceive of a world in which most of the nation believes that America defeated COVID-19. This is how it’s going to play out by Ed Yong
A global pandemic of this scale was inevitable.
Veterans of past epidemics have long warned that American society is trapped in a cycle of panic and neglect. After every crisis — anthrax, SARS, flu, Ebola — attention is paid and investments are made. But after short periods of peacetime, memories fade and budgets dwindle. This trend transcends red and blue administrations. When a new normal sets in, the abnormal once again becomes unimaginable. But there is reason to think that COVID-19 might be a disaster that leads to more radical and lasting change.
One could easily conceive of a world in which most of the nation believes that America defeated COVID-19
The 2020 Presidential Elections will be a signficant indicator regarding the future direction of the U.S.
Worldometer : Our sources include the United Nations Population Division, World Health Organization (WHO), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Bank.
BlueDot protects people around the world from infectious diseases with human and artificial intelligence. PILLARS: DETECTION, DISPERSION, DISRUPTION, DISSEMINATION OF KNOWLEDGE
BlueDot – Early warning 10 am, Dec 31, 2019, Jan 8, 2020 article – peer review; – predicted breakout in Bangkoch; saw the 360-degree dispersal – China, to Europe, to U.S (San Francisco, LA, NY – non-stop flights)
Solutions over the life-cycle of the outbreak, transmissions within a community, population movements, addressing concentrations
Third world impact? Not sure it is not happening … would be surprised if there are not outbreaks – predicts it gets worse – yet to be seen – May and June probably
Second wave – 6-9 months? What can we do? Most of the population still susceptible … need to also look past COVID-19 – anticipate the next outbreak … (Panic neglect cycle) – Anticipate, Mitigage and Blunt
Event 201 was a 3.5-hour pandemic tabletop exercise that simulated a series of dramatic, scenario-based facilitated discussions, confronting difficult, true-to-life dilemmas associated with response to a hypothetical, but scientifically plausible, pandemic.
The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, World Economic Forum, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation jointly propose these recommendations.
When he returned to Washington, he called his top homeland security adviser into the Oval Office and gave her the galley of historian John M. Barry’s “The Great Influenza,” which told the chilling tale of the mysterious plague that “would kill more people than the outbreak of any other disease in human history.” … “You’ve got to read this,” Fran Townsend remembers the president telling her. “He said, ‘Look, this happens every 100 years. We need a national strategy.'”
Thus was born the nation’s most comprehensive pandemic plan — a playbook that included diagrams for a global early warning system, funding to develop new, rapid vaccine technology, and a robust national stockpile of critical supplies, such as face masks and ventilators, Townsend said.
SHOCK REPORT: This Week CDC Quietly Updated COVID-19 Numbers – Only 9,210 Americans Died From COVID-19 Alone – Rest Had Different Other Serious IllnessesBy Joe Hoft Published August 29, 2020 at 7:45pm
Hardly anyone has been wearing masks in the Scandinavian countries, according to news reports.Mortality attributed to covid-19 hit a peak value of 11.38 deaths per day per million population on April 8, 2020. … For all practical purposes, the covid-19 epidemic is over in Sweden. Almost certainly herd immunity has been achieved in Sweden irrespective of any antibody test results. … Whether covid-19 will reappear this next fall or winter remains to be seen.
In the past, Atlas has advocated for the reopening of schools and claimed that COVID-19 lockdowns should be ended.
“Public policy is supposed to be taking into consideration not just stopping COVID-19 at all costs, but understanding the impact on people of what you do and what you say,” Atlas said. “We need to live in a rational world and show our children that we use critical thinking and there’s been a lot of sloppy thinking on this issue.”
But the size of the response in most of the world (not including Sweden) has been totally disproportionate to the size of the threat.
Shutting down completely in order to decrease the total number of deaths only makes sense if you are willing to stay shut down until a vaccine is available. That could take years. No country is willing to wait that long.
I am referring, of course, to the medication hydroxychloroquine. When this inexpensive oral medication is given very early in the course of illness, before the virus has had time to multiply beyond control, it has shown to be highly effective, especially when given in combination with the antibiotics azithromycin or doxycycline and the nutritional supplement zinc.
Heather Mac Donald is the Thomas W. Smith Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a contributing editor of City Journal. She earned a B.A. from Yale University, an M.A. in English from Cambridge University, and a J.D. from Stanford Law School. She writes for several newspapers and periodicals, including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The New Criterion, and Public Interest, and is the author of four books, including The War on Cops: How The New Attack on Law and Order Makes Everyone Less Safe and The Diversity Delusion: How Race and Gender Pandering Corrupt the University and Undermine Our Culture.
Dr. Scott Atlas disputes COVID-19 fear mongering tactics from our health official: KUSI Newsroom
SAN DIEGO (KUSI) – As coronavirus cases continue to increase across the United States, health officials and Democrat politicians seem to be using that statistic to fear monger and justify closure orders.
Dr. Scott Atlas of the Hoover Institute, discussed why we don’t need to be scared of the increase spread of coronavirus on Good Morning San Diego with KUSI’s Paul Rudy.
All of this seems prudent. They are following the evidence and adjusting to new data.
June 26, 2020. Avik Roy, Twitter. If you want to understand what’s going on with #COVID19 right now, the best place to look is Florida, because they do the best job of anyone in terms of data transparency. Note the different age distributions of cases, hospitalizations, & deaths in their regular report.
From the start, the public health establishment has projected an air of certitude in its advice and policy prescriptions on COVID-19 belied by a record of error on many of the central questions.
“You’re talking to a very fiscally conservative person,” said Ms. Reinhart, the World Bank’s newly appointed chief economist, in response to a question on the wisdom of borrowing so much in response to the pandemic. “But this is a war. In a war, you worry about winning the war, and then you worry about paying for it.”
Here is what John Kay of the Financial Times has written about science: “The objective of science is not an agreement on a course of action but the pursuit of truth. … Science is a matter of evidence. … The route to knowledge is transparency. … The route to truth is the pluralistic expression of conflicting views. … There is no room in the process for any notion of scientific consensus.”
That was a question explored by respected medical researchers Scott W. Atlas, John R. Birge, Ralph L. Keeney, and Alexander Lipton. The headline on their essay reveals a stark conclusion: “The COVID-19 Shutdown Will Cost Americans Millions of Years of Life.” They calculate the shockingly high cost of the Shut-Down-the-Economy Stress Pandemic, not just to the mental and physical health throughout the country — and not just to the economy — but to living standards for years to come.
According to the Worldometers website, 435 out of every one million Swedes have died from the virus, while the virus has killed 44 out of every million Norwegians.
And it’s not clear Sweden’s economy will be better off than Norway’s this year.
May 27, 2020. Mandatory Masks Aren’t About Safety, They’re About Social Control By Molly McCann. To those looking to benefit politically from emergencies, COVID presents an opportunity to advance plans targeted to transform American freedom and the American way of life.
The “experts” have admitted that masks’ efficacy is usually negligible.
In short, cloth masks are largely symbolic. The science hasn’t changed, but the agenda has. … Implementing mandatory mask policies across a society of 300 million because it makes some people feel better is absurd on its face. But the policy makes a lot of sense if you understand its purpose and usefulness to shift the American mindset.
Last week, a doctor in the Wall Street Journal pointed out that cloth masks—the type worn by the overwhelming majority of the population—are not very effective, echoing Fauci’s earlier admission. The WSJ author noted that even the N95 masks fall short: “They’re considered effective at blocking coronavirus particles only when they’re form fitted and tested to make sure there isn’t any leakage.”
Each state’s experience differs, with each paying its own price in lives or livelihoods. Governors should be judged by their own state’s record going into and coming out of this crisis. It’s a standard that surely elevates governors like Ron DeSantis and Bill Lee—and likely condemns Andrew Cuomo.
First, it is critical that governments inform the public not just about what they know, but also about what they do not know. That is the only way to build the trust needed to fight a lethal virus in a democratic society. No democracy can force its citizens to change their behavior – at least not without incurring high costs. In pursuing a coordinated, collective response, transparency and accurate information is far more effective than coercion.
We parted ways and I just felt a pull to get a couple cans of formula for him, which I purchased, then went to find him. When I gave him the cans, he broke down in tears. He said he had been contemplating how to steal those cans because he’s on a fixed income and couldn’t afford the formula to help his daughter.Then he embraced me. We didn’t have masks. There was no Centers for Disease Control-recommended distance between us at all.All we had was our humanity. And that’s exactly what is being lost during this pandemic.
The coronavirus crisis is real, but the effects on public health are just part of the problem. The long-term health of the economy matters as well. Political actors should be looking at the opportunity costs, trade-offs and risks associated with various courses of action. But that’s not the way of the tyrannical government official, the moral narcissist, or the anonymous informer. They know they are right, and that is all that matters.
The Covid-19 experience has taught us that it’s far better to respond quickly and smartly, with the right technology and mass testing and tracing, rather than only relying on the crudest of shutdowns. If there are second waves of the virus, we shouldn’t repeat the mistakes of the first.
The political divide among the public is stark. According to a CBS News/YouGov poll released Thursday, 88% of Democrats believe the top priority of America is to “stay home, slow virus spread.” Only 12% said the top priority should be “back to work, get economy going.” Sixty-two percent of Republicans, on the other hand, favored getting the economy going as the top priority, while 38% felt staying at home is the top priority. Put another way, the net difference between Democrats and Republicans on what the top priority of the country should be is 50 percentage points.
According to historians, pandemics typically have two types of endings: the medical, which occurs when the incidence and death rates plummet, and the social, when the epidemic of fear about the disease wanes.“When people ask, ‘When will this end?,’ they are asking about the social ending,” said Dr. Jeremy Greene, a historian of medicine at Johns Hopkins.
How will Covid-19 end?
One possibility, historians say, is that the coronavirus pandemic could end socially before it ends medically. People may grow so tired of the restrictions that they declare the pandemic over, even as the virus continues to smolder in the population and before a vaccine or effective treatment is found.
“I think there is this sort of social psychological issue of exhaustion and frustration,” the Yale historian Naomi Rogers said. “We may be in a moment when people are just saying: ‘That’s enough. I deserve to be able to return to my regular life.’”
The challenge, Dr. Brandt said, is that there will be no sudden victory. Trying to define the end of the epidemic “will be a long and difficult process.”
What is the true infection fatality rate of COVID-19, broken down by age and health status? This is a simple question for which the CDC should have a clear answer by now, accompanied by a readable chart – a chart showing everyone’s demographic risk assessment so that we can better target our infection mitigation efforts. Yet it’s the one thing our government hasn’t done. Wonder why?
May 14, 2020. USA Today. Why coronavirus cases flatten, while deaths rise by John Bacon.
The national curve finally appears to be flattening – for now.
The Johns Hopkins dashboard, which provides data on the coronavirus outbreak, shows the rise of confirmed cases and daily deaths in the U.S. may be slowing, even as the national death total approaches 100,000. Worldometer statistics, run by the data company Dadax, hint at steady declines.
May 12, 2020, Foreign Affairs. Sweden’s Coronavirus Strategy Will Soon Be the World’s. Herd Immunity Is the Only Realistic Option—the Question Is How to Get There Safely By Nils Karlson, Charlotta Stern, and Daniel B. Klein
There are good reasons for countries to begin easing their restrictions. It will take several years to tally the total number of deaths, bankruptcies, layoffs, suicides, mental health problems, losses to GDP and investments, and other costs attributable not just to the virus but to the measures used to fight it. It should already be obvious, however, that the economic and social costs of lockdowns are enormous:
“Just as we come out of our holes and see what 25 percent unemployment looks like,” she said, “we may also see what collective rage looks like.”
The problem, Garrett added, is bigger than Trump and older than his presidency. America has never been sufficiently invested in public health. The riches and renown go mostly to physicians who find new and better ways to treat heart disease, cancer and the like. The big political conversation is about individuals’ access to health care.
But what about the work to keep our air and water safe for everyone, to design policies and systems for quickly detecting outbreaks, containing them and protecting entire populations? Where are the rewards for the architects of that?
The coronavirus has touched almost every country on earth, but its impact has seemed capricious.
The question of why the virus has overwhelmed some places and left others relatively untouched is a puzzle that has spawned numerous theories and speculations but no definitive answers. That knowledge could have profound implications for how countries respond to the virus, for determining who is at risk and for knowing when it’s safe to go out again.
There are already hundreds of studies underway around the world looking into how demographics, preexisting conditions and genetics might affect the wide variation in impact.
Schinecker said the tests are an important step in determining whether someone may have immunity, but acknowledged that more research is required to determine whether antibodies protect people from being reinfected.
But if previous outbreaks have proven anything, it’s that hunts for vaccines are unpredictable. “I don’t think any vaccine has been developed quickly,” Offit cautions. “I’d be really amazed if we had something in 18 months.”
“What I’ve seen across the country is so many people give up their liberties for just a little bit of security,” she continued. “And they don’t have to do that. If a leader will take too much power in a time of crisis, that is how we lose our country. So I felt like I’ve had to use every single opportunity to talk about why we slow things down, we make decisions based on science and facts and make sure that we’re not letting emotion grab a hold of the situation.”
If people stick with measures to contain the virus, death rates will eventually trickle down to zero, but only after almost everyone has been infected, assuming they are then immune. If we’re lucky, we’ll slow things down enough to never truly overwhelm the hospitals, and if we’re really lucky we’ll slow things down long enough to benefit from a vaccine or a treatment.
Apr 12, 2020. American Greatness. The Thin Façade of Authority As we continue to debate about numerators and denominators in determining the real impact of this virus, one common denominator remains certain about the elites advising, crafting, and developing our response: they aren’t touched by the impact of their decisions. By Victor Davis Hanson
So far in this crisis, our elite have let us down in a manner the muscularly wise have never done. Botched Models, Bad Advice
Apr 12, 2020. Herd Immunity vs. Herd Mentality Although we do not yet know every detail of the end of our infatuation with the coronavirus, it’s clear that the historian of this episode will include a chapter called “Mistakes Were Made.”
It is not, as Surgeon General Adams suggested, like a nationwide series of Pearl Harbors or 9/11s. It is not, as the president has frequently said, “unlike anything we’ve ever seen.” It is a severe seasonal respiratory ailment that will, when all is said and done, probably claim fewer lives than the flu usually does, many fewer than bad years, when upwards of 80,000 die and hundreds of thousands are hospitalized.
the chances of recovery from the coronavirus is about 98% if you catch it.
models show 50% of the population may have already had it.
analysis shows in New York City 70% of the deaths are of those over age 65
The majority of New York’s more than 5,500 deaths due to coronavirus were among men, and 86% of these deaths were among people who already had underlying illnesses like high blood pressure and diabetes,
Of the 5,500 deaths in New York since the first on March the 14th, 61% were men, 39% were women. Sixty-three percent of the deaths were among those age 70 and older while 7% of the cases were those 49 and younger. Of the 4,089 of those who died had at least one other chronic disease, the record showed. The leading underlying illness was high blood pressure, which showed up in 55 of the deaths. Next, diabetes in 1,700 of the deaths, about 37% of the cases. Other top illnesses found in those who died from coronavirus were hyperlipidemia, coronary artery disease, renal disease — that’s kidneys, for those of you in Rio Linda — and dementia.
We don’t have a vaccine for HIV, and that was Dr. Fauci’s specialty.
But do you know the odds of any American getting this virus?” Do we have a one in 10 chance of getting it? One in five chance? What are the circumstances in which our chances or odds increase?
5,500 deaths, 138,000 cases. New York has a population of eight million. So eight-tenths of a percent of the population of New York have contracted the disease.
Dr. Birx explained (Apr 7, 2020 WH brief), that COVID-19 deaths in the United States have “very liberal” recording guidance, noting that anyone who tests positive for the virus and dies would be included in their numbers of coronavirus deaths.
Apr 6, 2020. Quality Progress. Tracking Covid-19. How to let the data tell you what lies ahead By Donald J. Wheeler, Al Pfadt. Kathryn J. Whyte
The first three intervention models—case isolation, home quarantine, and social distancing of those at risk of severe disease—make up an optimal mitigation policy.
“The fourth NPI model was social distancing of the entire population. This model assumes this will reduce contacts outside the household, school, or workplace. The fifth NPI model was the closure of all schools and 75 percent of all universities.”
The model, from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, now projects 81,766 deaths in the United States through Aug. 1, with most of the fatalities occurring by the middle of May. The IHME team projected a range of between 49,431 and 136,401 for the same period.
Apr 6, 2020. RealClearPolitics. An Advantaged Disease, Indeed COMMENTARY By William J. Bennett & Seth Leibsohn
Our officials and media have warned us of 2 million deaths in the United States. Then 200,000 deaths. Then 100,000 to 240,000. This needs to stop. There have been a total of 68,000 coronavirus deaths worldwide. And we are told we will see, just in America, three to four times that number. Does that even pass the plausibility test?
U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams warned Sunday amid the coronavirus pandemic that the week ahead would be the “hardest and the saddest” of “most Americans’ lives.”
“This is going to be the hardest and the saddest week of most Americans’ lives,” Adams said on “Fox News Sunday.”
“This is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment, our 9/11 moment, only it’s not going to be localized; it’s going to be happening all over the country,” Adams said.
Apr 4, 2020. USA Today. Stop the panic. Don’t let the coronavirus win. COVID-19 is a public health emergency, but precautions must be proportionate to the risk. The cure can’t be worse than the disease. By Alex Berezow
Obviously, a total economic collapse would tear at the fabric of society and also pose a threat to public health. And it raises the specter that our “cure” for COVID-19 may be far more harmful than the disease itself.
In addition to the annual flu death toll mentioned above, car accidents claim another 40,000 American lives each year. Though the comparison is imperfect because car crashes aren’t infectious, the point is that we accept these risks as a matter of routine. Why? Because the alternative — banning cars and shutting down everyday life — is unacceptable. As it turns out, dying is one of the risks of living
COVID-19 is without a doubt a public health emergency. However, precautions must be proportionate to the risk, and the pros and cons of every policy must be carefully weighed. In the midst of what appears to be outright global panic, it seems as if few of our leaders are actually doing this.
Now, in a divided country, efficient and farsighted government is necessary to overcome obstacles unprecedented in magnitude and global scope. Sustaining the public trust is crucial to social solidarity, to the relation of societies with each other, and to international peace and stability.
The crisis effort, however vast and necessary, must not crowd out the urgent task of launching a parallel enterprise for the transition to the post-coronavirus order.
April 2, 2020. New York Is the Epicenter of the World. The hidden gift in this pandemic is that we learn how to prepare for the worse one still to come. By Peggy Noonan.
Rowe also decried “the unintended consequences of ranking Safety above everything else,” which he said is “precisely what our leaders are doing right now.” He asked his fans to imagine if society treated automobile deaths “with the same frenzied, up-to-the minute drama as each new virus infection. … Would any of us ever drive again?” Rowe continued:
I don’t know if we’re overacting, but the manner in which the information is being disseminated suggests the situation is already catastrophic. Is it? According to Dr. Ioannidis, we’re treating a virus that MIGHT have devastating consequences, in a way that will GUARANTEE devastating consequences.
They publish their own models of the virus spread. It shows how many people will need hospital care: the system, they say, can cope. And when asked, they say they don’t think Imperial College has made a better call.
Apr 1, 2020. The Nation. Exclusive: The Military Knew Years Ago That a Coronavirus Was Coming. The Pentagon warned the White House about a shortage of ventilators, face masks and hospital beds in 2017—but the Trump administration did nothing. By Ken Klippenstein
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya is a professor of medicine at Stanford University. He is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a senior fellow at both the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and the Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute. His March 24, 2020, article in the Wall Street Journal questions the premise that “coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines.” In the article he suggests that “there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.” In this edition of Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson we asked Dr. Bhattacharya to defend that statement and describe to us how he arrived at this conclusion. We get into the details of his research, which used data collected from hotspots around the world and his background as a doctor, a medical researcher, and an economist. It’s not popular right now to question conventional wisdom on sheltering in place, but Dr. Bhattacharya makes a strong case for challenging it, based in economics and science.
Mar 24, 2020. WSJ. Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say? Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. By Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya
Mar 31, 2020. RealClearPolitics.com Time for a Second Opinion. COMMENTARY By William J. Bennett & Seth Leibsohn
To help restore a sense of calm and normalcy, we ought to look at this disease at its center of harm and engage something like a more vertical strategy as Thomas Friedman recommended, “sequestering those among us most likely to be killed or suffer long-term damage by exposure to coronavirus infection … while basically treating the rest of society the way we have always dealt with familiar threats like the flu.” The horizontal strategy of “restricting the movement and commerce of the entire population, without consideration of varying risks for severe infection,” is too blunt, too paralyzing — and too haunting.
About 40% of Indiana’s intensive care unit beds are open, said State Health Commissioner Kris Box said, but that availability is expected to change dramatically in the next few weeks.
Mar 28, 2020. American Greatness. It’s Not a Choice Between Lives or the Economy by Roger Kimball. President Trump has shown great leadership during this manufactured crisis. Let’s hope he continues to ponder his observation that we do not want to get ourselves into a situation in which the cure is worse than the disease.
That said, I continue to believe that shutting down the U.S. economy was insane (also here, here, and here). I maintain, in retrospect, this episode will furnish ample material for an addendum to Charles Mackay’s Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.
Unfortunately, there is no arguing with insanity. As one friend of mine likes to note, arguing with such madness is like arguing with a hurricane. It is completely ineffective, indeed counterproductive, because making arguments at such a time is likely to distract one from taking precautions and making preparations.
As the Austrian school of economics demonstrates in the calculation theory of socialism, no central planning body has the capacity to organize society based on coercive mandates …
To conclude, with transparency and diligence the Taiwanese government has avoided many problems. The key is that the Taiwanese government and the Taiwanese people understand that the individual’s own responsibility and actions are essential to suppressing the coronavirus pandemic, not a mandatory massive shutdown. This is what the world needs to learn.
Includes a control chart. Viewing the data in its entirety and over time offers a clearer window into the trajectory of the outbreak, one that isn’t clouded by noise and can detect meaningful differences in patterns that can inform official public guidance and decision-making.
“With all the talk of ‘flattening the curve,’ we think the approach we used and our analysis sheds light on early signals of when the increase in new deaths peaks and the curve begins to flatten,” Perla and Provost say.
“The predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground on either China, South Korea, or Italy,” she said. … Birx also addressed reports that raised the alarm of New York City hospitals running out of ICU beds, ventilators, and creating “Do Not Resuscitate” (DNR) policies for patients. … She revealed that she spoke with health officials in New York, that there were still ICU beds and 1000-2000 ventilators available, and that there were no DNR policies enacted. … “We don’t have evidence of that right now,” she said.
British scientist Neil Ferguson ignited the world’s drastic response to the novel Wuhan coronavirus when he published the bombshell report predicting 2.2 million Americans and more than half a million Brits would be killed. After both the U.S. and U.K. governments effectively shut down their citizens and economies, Ferguson is walking back his doomsday scenarios.
Ferguson’s report from Imperial College, which White House and other officials took seriously, said that if the U.S. and U.K. did not shut down for 18 months, and isolation measures were not taken, “we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months.” His “models” showed overflowing hospitals and ICU beds.
TIMELINE ONE: ONE TO TWO MONTHS I should note that the experts I spoke with think this timeline is highly unlikely
TIMELINE TWO: THREE TO FOUR MONTHS – In this timeline, Hanage speculated, “we learn some things about the virus that make us much more confident about being able to resume various activities.
TIMELINE THREE: FOUR TO 12 MONTHS. One big unresolved question about COVID-19 is whether, like the flu, its spread will slow substantially during the summer.
TIMELINE FOUR: 12 TO 18 MONTHS (OR LONGER). researchers around the world will have been scrambling to develop a vaccine. Spring 2021 is about the earliest anyone expects one to be available.
Mar 26, 2020. AFP/Yahoo News. Coronavirus could become seasonal: top US scientist Anthony Fauci, who leads research into infectious diseases at the National Institutes of Health, told a briefing the virus was beginning to take root in the southern hemisphere, where winter is on its way.
We have to open up the economy by mid-April or the consequences will be a lost generation. It will be harder to do so when the news is counting deaths in the thousands, and possibly tens of thousands. There are steps we can and must take to re-open our economy in a careful and deliberate manner.
Looking at data from Italy, the average age of patients who have succumbed to the virus is 78.5, not the age of the American workforce. A full 99 percent of those who have perished in Italy have a major pre-existing condition. We know exactly who the most vulnerable are, and we need to protect them.
First, we must quarantine and support the old and at risk.
Second, we ensure we have the capability to institute mass testing. This involves not only test kits but the temperature guns that are so ubiquitous to East Asia.
Third, if you are sick, stay home. If you are not sick, you can return to the labor force. Businesses should support flexibility for employees to work from home and care for sick family members.
We will not be perfect in our steps to restart our economy. In fact, doing so will evoke the painful memories of a wartime economy. A vaccine for COVID-19 and a policy solution to our long-term growth and debt issues will come in time. But first, we must take the right steps to restart an American engine of prosperity that will make fighting present and future viruses exponentially more manageable.
Mar 25, 2020. Atlantic. This Is Just the Beginning. by Yascha Moun. People who now advocate that we “choose the economy” are not being honest about the consequences of that decision.
In Germany, the government assumes that six or seven out of every 10 citizens could get it.
The World Health Organization has estimated the case fatality rate to be 3.4 percent, meaning that about one in every 33 patients will die.
Let us further assume that the true fatality rate turns out to be much lower than the current figures suggest—say, about one in 100—and that our hospitals somehow figure out a way to manage the flood of patients that would stream through their doors in need of lifesaving treatment.
In that implausibly sanguine scenario, more than 1 million Americans would succumb to COVID-19 in the next few months. That is about as many people as the country lost in the Civil War, World War I, and World War II—combined.
The current guidance assumes a highly optimistic scenario, where we get very lucky. That’s not good advice, at all. We need to prepare for a moderately pessimistic scenario if we want to protect quality in our organizations.
Washington (AFP) – The Pentagon is assuming the coronavirus epidemic in the United States will last at least several months, and that some countries are at risk of “political chaos,” its top officials said Tuesday.
The first coronavirus case in the U.S. and South Korea was detected on January 21. Since then, South Korea has effectively contained the coronavirus without shutting down its economy or quarantining tens of millions of people. Instead, the Korean government has pursued a “trace, test, and treat” strategy that identifies and isolates those infected with the coronavirus while allowing healthy people to go about their normal lives. Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan have also managed to contain the virus via a combination of travel restrictions, social distancing, and heightened hygiene.
If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all. “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.
The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.
Clearly, America was unprepared for this pandemic. … And there will be time enough to assess responsibility for the lack of surgical masks, medical gowns, rubber gloves, respirators, ventilators and hospital beds. The immediate imperative is to produce those beds and that equipment and get it delivered to doctors, nurses and hospital staff, the front-line troops in the battle to control the virus.
NAFTALI BENNET: I want to share with you the single most important insight of the entire corona epidemic. The most important thing — more than social distancing, more than testing, testing, testing, more than anything else — is to separate old people from younger people.
While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place. … “What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”
Jails in California, New York, Ohio, Texas and at least a dozen other states are sending low-level offenders and elderly or sickly inmates home early due to coronavirus fears. At other jails and prisons around the country, officials are banning visitors, restricting inmates’ movement and screening staff.
May 21, 2020. American Greatness. COVID-19, the Elephant, and the House Cat The really scary thing about this latest health scare is not the disease but the unexpected depths of passivity it revealed. By Roger Kimball •
Mar 20, 2020. Medium Did You Have Coronavirus Without Knowing It? Health experts say the virus has likely been in some U.S. communities for weeks and some people have surely had it without realizing By Markham Heid
“In fact, symptoms for most people are quite mild,” says Dr. Sandro Galea, MD, a physician and dean of Boston University School of Public Health. He says that up to 80% of people who contract the virus have only weak symptoms — such as a low-grade fever or cough — and that they may have mistakenly attributed these to the common cold or some other minor ailment. “It’s definitely possible to have it and not realize it,” he says.
Riley says that the only way to look for a past infection is with an antibody test,which may not be able to tell the difference between Covid-19 and other common varieties of the coronavirus. And, as of right now, this test doesn’t exist for the Covid-19.
Test or no test, if you think you may have had Covid-19, you may also be wondering if you can get it again. “Good question,” says Boston U’s Galea. “That remains unresolved, but there likely is some immunity once one has had Covid-19. Whether that immunity is complete or not is less clear.” That means if you get it again, you’re probably more likely to have a mild or asymptomatic case.
The novel coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. will last at least 18 months and “could include multiple waves of illness,” prompting “significant shortages” for consumers and overwhelming the healthcare system, a federal government contingency plan leaked to the media this week warned.
President Donald Trump’s anti-coronavirus plan, dated March 13 and delivered to policymakers, echoed the findings of a March 16 report by the U.K.’s Imperial College, which also found that the outbreak could “potentially” last “18 month or more” in the U.S. and strain the healthcare system “many times over.”
Governors in 27 states have activated parts of their National Guard units to counter the effects of the contagious virus, known as COVID-19, with medical testing, transportation, logistics support and, potentially, law enforcement responsibilities, he said.
If the situation requires it, governors can order the Guard to assist with police patrols and enforce laws — “anything that the law enforcement capacity normally does, they could be augmented with National Guard troops,” he explained.
“Do I see it happening now? I don’t see any demand signal that’s demanding that we are going to use the National Guard in that kind of scenario, but they could,” Lengyel said. “Governors could under the command and control of law enforcement in their states, they could use their National Guard.”
Mar 19, 2020. HAARETZ., Israel News. Trump Is Right About the Coronavirus. The WHO Is Wrong,’ Says Israeli Expert. Dr. Dan Yamin has developed models for predicting the spread of infectious diseases, and helped curb the Ebola epidemic. He says the coronavirus could take some 13,000 lives in Israel – but there’s cause for optimism By Oded Carmeli
Although it’s impossible to say how many Americans will die because of the new coronavirus, under a reasonable set of assumptions the number of fatalities could be high — potentially in the hundreds of thousands or more.
We’ve started with an estimate from a University of Nebraska public health researcher, Dr. James Lawler, that was recently presented to hospital executives: 480,000 American deaths over the course of the illness known as Covid-19.
Leading causes of death in U.S.
Heart disease 655,381; Cancer 599,274; Coronavirus (estimate) 480,00
Extensive pandemic preparation plans exist on paper, but Indianapolis has not had to put them to the test — yet.
“The key thing is that there is ongoing modeling of this sort of thing and simulation so these are scenarios that have been contemplated,” Doehring said. “They just haven’t been reality.”
A recent CDC projection estimated that the U.S. coronavirus epidemic could infect between 160 million and 214 million people over a period of more than a year — and kill anywhere from 200,000 to 1.7 million people in the country. A top CDC disease modeler presented the estimates to CDC officials and epidemic experts during a conference call last month, the New York Times revealed on Friday. The scenario did not factor in the efforts now underway to address the epidemic, but rather what could happen if no action was taken to slow the spread of the disease.
Most Americans have a low risk of being exposed, health experts say.
Most who get sick will have a mild or moderate case.
High-risk groups include the elderly or people with underlying conditions such as hypertension or diabetes.
The Indiana State Department of Health hotline is 317-233-7125 from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. and 317-233-1325 afterward.
Symptoms are fever, cough and shortness of breath, according to the CDC. Call your health provider before going to a clinic so health workers can prepare.
Protect health workers first: Supplies of masks and other protective gear are already running low in places, so health providers should get priority on the theory that if doctors and nurses get sick, it’ll put all patients — including those suffering from ailments other than Covid-19 — at risk.
Don’t cut off trade: Many ingredients for important medicines come from China, and it doesn’t help anybody if, in seeking to prevent coronavirus infections, you run out of drugs to treat cardiac arrest.
Don’t hoard medicines: It creates shortages
Cross-train your employees so that an illness of a key worker doesn’t sideline your business.
Oh, and wash your hands, but you should be doing that anyway
2021 Budget. Presentations from the Departments are scheduled for Aug 17, 18, 19. The budget guidance to the Departments from the Council includes factoring in a cost of living increase from 1-3%.
Updated: Apr 25, 2020
Brown County is a 2.0 . As a former defense and military analyst, assessing the capabilities of groups, organizations, countries (e.g., systems) was one of the tools of the trade.
A Way Ahead – Post COVID-19 recovery and prosperity
Independent Voters of Brown County IN 