Brown County is a 2.0 . As a former defense and military analyst, assessing the capabilities of groups, organizations, countries (e.g., systems) was one of the tools of the trade.
One of the simpler models for assessing capability used a scale of 1 (low) to 5 (high capability). The norm is a 2.0 which can be defined as “good enough – it works for us.”
In the case of Brown County, we have a “closed” political system as a result of a one-party monopoly on political power which can be reinforced in every election.
The plus side for some in this closed system is that major decisions, despite any opposition, can be made relatively quickly with no repercussions at the ballot box. The downside is that this is less effective than an “open” system that can assimilate feedback and works to identify the best solutions for the county.
The risk of a closed system is not only suboptimal decisions and abuse of power which is a given, but you can build up a simmering opposition to the status quo that can eventually lead to conflict. This conflict can be expressed on social media, at public meetings, and through protests and boycotts. In a military context as we’ve seen throughout the world, a closed system provides the motivation for insurgencies, revolutions, and war.
In anticipating the local impacts that the Covid-19 crisis is having and may have on the county, to include potentially unprecedented amounts of borrowing, potential tax increases and subsidies for favored projects, groups and industries, we do have choices.
For over the past two years, volunteers in the community have been working to discover and develop a more collaborative and transparent leadership approach. We are in the “test” or proof-of-concept phase. More info via the link below:
Although we may know what needs to be done, the United States as a whole is not dealing effectively with the opportunistic infection of Covid-19.
Since we become infectious to others two to three days before we even know we are infected ourselves, social distancing, hand washing, and the use of face masks are still our most effective personal interventions at present.
Total deaths per million: Here we find that the United States’ value of 364.1 is sixth from the bottom, behind the deaths per capita of France, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. However, it is instructive to compare the United States’ death rate with other first-world countries such as Australia (4.1), South Korea (5.4), Japan (7.5), Israel (34.2), Germany (107.1), Switzerland (197.3), and Canada (225.2).
May 4, 2020. Quality Digest. Waiting for the Covid-19 Peak. While this worldwide, unintended experiment continues we won’t immediately know if we have passed the peak. By Donald J. Wheeler and Al Pfadt.
Sweden began to flatten its curve around April 12, but the Swedes were less aggressive in their efforts5. By the end of April they had lowered their average growth rate to 2.9 percent and had a total of 20,300 cases. Thus, while starting from the same amounts, in one month Norway added only 3,200 new cases while Sweden added 15,900. Such is the marvel of compound growth rates.
With a growth rate of 2.9 percent per day Sweden is on track to double its number of confirmed cases in 24 days (May 24). If the Swedes can further flatten their curve they can postpone this doubling and gain time before reaching 40,000 cases. With a growth rate of 0.7 percent per day Norway’s doubling time is 99 days. If the Norwegians maintain this rate of growth, they will not reach 15,000 cases until mid-July.
And we need to continue to try to flatten our cumulative curves simply because a flatter curve buys more time.
I hope it is not bad form to be the first person to comment on our article, but I wanted to call attention to a link that I just discovered today that represents an entirely different approach to the one Don and I illustrate in this article.
The web address http://covid-measures.stanford.edu/ presents interactive models that permit one to ” try out” different assumptions regarding various aspects of Covid 19 in terms of certain parameters such as demand for hospital beds or the anticipated number of fatalities associated with certain containment scenarios.
I hope readers don’t get the impression from our article that we reject the utility of such models.
However, they serve a very different purpose than the one we take and both should be thought of as complementing each other.
Apr 6, 2020. Quality Progress. Tracking Covid-19. How to let the data tell you what lies ahead By Donald J. Wheeler, Al Pfadt. Kathryn J. Whyte
The first three intervention models—case isolation, home quarantine, and social distancing of those at risk of severe disease—make up an optimal mitigation policy.
“The fourth NPI model was social distancing of the entire population. This model assumes this will reduce contacts outside the household, school, or workplace. The fifth NPI model was the closure of all schools and 75 percent of all universities.”
Includes a control (SPC) chart. Viewing the data in its entirety and over time offers a clearer window into the trajectory of the outbreak, one that isn’t clouded by noise and can detect meaningful differences in patterns that can inform official public guidance and decision-making.
“With all the talk of ‘flattening the curve,’ we think the approach we used and our analysis sheds light on early signals of when the increase in new deaths peaks and the curve begins to flatten,” Perla and Provost say.
The current guidance assumes a highly optimistic scenario, where we get very lucky. That’s not good advice, at all. We need to prepare for a moderately pessimistic scenario if we want to protect quality in our organizations.
Storm in a Tea Cup?LinkedIn. There is no question that the media is effective in whipping up emotions. Is the COVID-19 panic a storm in a tea cup? by Dr. Tony Burns.
A Way Ahead – Post COVID-19 recovery and prosperity
by Tim J. Clark
The government response (national, state, county) to the pandemic has been overly influenced by fear, emotion, politics, and ignorance.
Transitioning from Response to Recovery – Getting back to work
The 24×7 media coverage that thrives on controversy does not help. I support the assessment identified in the article in Quality Digest magazine – “Tracking Covid-19 – How to let the data tell you what lies ahead” that “case isolation, home quarantine, and social distancing of those at risk of severe disease—make up an optimal mitigation policy that will guide getting the country back to work.” The issue that is just starting to surface is about community (herd) immunity.
Community (Herd) Immunity. A situation in which a sufficient proportion of a population is immune to an infectious disease (through vaccination and/or prior illness) to make its spread from person to person unlikely. Even individuals not vaccinated (such as newborns and those with chronic illnesses) are offered some protection because the disease has little opportunity to spread within the community. Also known as herd immunity. Reference: CDC
Economic Depression
I’m also following the discussions on the macro-economics. The current situation has been assessed as being similar to the period between 1930-45. The Depression (1930) contributed to conditions that created conflict between competing powers that led to WWII, followed by a “new democratic world order” led by the U.S where the dollar became the reserve currency for the world. In some future scenarios, the pandemic is projected to lead to a “depression,” heightened by tensions between the U.S. and the emerging power (China).
Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio participated in a Tedx discussion on the topic – “What coronavirus means for the global economy” where he states that “This is not a recession; this is a breakdown. You’re seeing the same thing that happened in the 1930s.” Comments on the discussion at Forbes:
On a brighter note, “Dalio flagged the opportunity for entrepreneurship as the catalyst for recovery: “The greatest force through Time is human inventiveness. The greatest force of that is reinventiveness.”
” …. However, other experts believe this financial crisis is unique because it is a result of a health issue, a global pandemic, rather than an otherwise unstable or unproductive economy. As such, they are more optimistic that the economy will rebound quickly once the coronavirus pandemic subsides.”
“I would point to the difference between this and a normal recession: There is nothing fundamentally wrong with our economy,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told NBC’s “Today” in an interview last month. In a follow-up interview with CNBC on Thursday, Powell reiterated his belief that the U.S. economy can have a “robust” rebound once the pandemic ends, though he is reluctant to offer a precise timetable for how long that could take.
Brown County
Regarding Brown County, the Community Organizations Active In Disaster (COAD) works within a four-phase cycle: Preparation-Mitigation, Preparedness, Response (the phase we are in now), and Recovery.
An optimal “Recovery” strategy is not likely without a successful transition to a “whole-of-county” strategy and plan that is supported by the Brown County community.
The county is funded by income and property tax and a depression/recession will reduce revenue. The county cannot print money and options of increasing revenue include a combination of cuts, borrowing, and raising property taxes. The most optimistic and unrealistic scenario is that things go back to the way they were – this may be wishful thinking.
Regarding increasing county debt, the “temptation” may be to borrow money to fund a variety of special projects with the promise of economic miracles.
The economic engine for the county is residents that reported adjusted gross income (AGI) of $401 million dollars in 2017. Tourism has been identified as the economic engine for the town of Nashville. In contrast, in 2017, the gross revenue generated from tourism was estimated by Rockport Analytics at $42.7 million with a total economic impact of $22.6 million.
Relying on past county methods and practices to determine the priorities and direction of the county will likely be the preferred and initial approach. However, this approach is not capable of producing optimal results where everyone benefits, or at least, are not any worse off in the long-term.
Systems determine 85-100% of results and the capability of a system can be assessed on a scale of 1 (low) to 5 (high). Brown County is governed through a one-party monopoly on political power that represents a closed system which would be assessed at a Level 2.
A Way Ahead?
Albert Einstein remarked that “We can not solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them.” For over the past two years, volunteers in the community with the support of the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs, Purdue and Ball State, have been working to develop a new leadership approach as part of the Hometown Collaborative Initiative (HCI). It introduces an open-system approach to economic growth and community development.
The initiative is referred to as the Brown County Leader Network. We are in the process of developing a website to help share information. In the interim, additional information is provided at the following. “Brown County Leader Network.”
Small Business. Below is information for small business owners (under 500 employees). Also included is information that addresses unemployment details for both workers and employers.
For Government, the Office of Community and Rural Affairs (OCRA) is also a source of funding for infrastructure-related (mainly water and stormwater), projects, but also public facilities and main street revitalization programs. (The county is in the process of applying for a grant for Phase II of a Stormwater project in Helmsburg.)
Sign-up for the newsletter to stay updated on likely future support to benefit Indiana communities adversely affected by COVID-19. It is expected that the balance of current funds (in the millions) will be redirected into a program whose sole purpose will be to benefit Indiana communities adversely affected by COVID-19.
To foster, preserve and promote the rich history of Brown County, Indiana;
Encouraging an interest in local history;-Identifying significant historical sites and items found within the county.
Providing documentation and records of said significant locations/items;
To promote and encourage an interest in Brown County history on the local, national, and international levels, benefiting citizens and visitors, alike;
Appreciate the impact made by the arts, crafts, and music inspired by the natural beauty and nurtured by the creative spirit, and how each of these continue to be a part of our rich history;
Educate and inspire a lifelong interest in Brown County history in persons of all ages;
Aid in the protection of the historical, cultural, and natural assets of Brown County;
Share with the members of the Peaceful Valley Heritage, Inc. and all interested parties, all matters historic found within Brown County.
A “headline” on Feb 24, 2020. Minneapolis St Paul Business Journal. U of M disease expert: Coronavirus won’t be contained, so here’s what to do With vaccines still months away, Osterholm — who before his U of M job was chief epidemiologist for the state of Minnesota — says a broader outbreak is likely. So he and Olshaker have some advice for coping:
This may be the most comprehensive article on the issues that provide the insights on strategies and expected results.
“If you agree with this article and want the US Government to take action, please sign the White House petition to implement a Hammer-and-Dance Suppression strategy.”
“If you are an expert in the field and want to criticize or endorse the article or some of its parts, feel free to leave a private note here or contextually and I will respond or address.”
Mar 25, 2020. Atlantic. How the Pandemic Will End The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world … and One could easily conceive of a world in which most of the nation believes that America defeated COVID-19. This is how it’s going to play out by Ed Yong
A global pandemic of this scale was inevitable.
Veterans of past epidemics have long warned that American society is trapped in a cycle of panic and neglect. After every crisis — anthrax, SARS, flu, Ebola — attention is paid and investments are made. But after short periods of peacetime, memories fade and budgets dwindle. This trend transcends red and blue administrations. When a new normal sets in, the abnormal once again becomes unimaginable. But there is reason to think that COVID-19 might be a disaster that leads to more radical and lasting change.
One could easily conceive of a world in which most of the nation believes that America defeated COVID-19
The 2020 Presidential Elections will be a signficant indicator regarding the future direction of the U.S.
Worldometer : Our sources include the United Nations Population Division, World Health Organization (WHO), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Bank.
BlueDot protects people around the world from infectious diseases with human and artificial intelligence. PILLARS: DETECTION, DISPERSION, DISRUPTION, DISSEMINATION OF KNOWLEDGE
BlueDot – Early warning 10 am, Dec 31, 2019, Jan 8, 2020 article – peer review; – predicted breakout in Bangkoch; saw the 360-degree dispersal – China, to Europe, to U.S (San Francisco, LA, NY – non-stop flights)
Solutions over the life-cycle of the outbreak, transmissions within a community, population movements, addressing concentrations
Third world impact? Not sure it is not happening … would be surprised if there are not outbreaks – predicts it gets worse – yet to be seen – May and June probably
Second wave – 6-9 months? What can we do? Most of the population still susceptible … need to also look past COVID-19 – anticipate the next outbreak … (Panic neglect cycle) – Anticipate, Mitigage and Blunt
Event 201 was a 3.5-hour pandemic tabletop exercise that simulated a series of dramatic, scenario-based facilitated discussions, confronting difficult, true-to-life dilemmas associated with response to a hypothetical, but scientifically plausible, pandemic.
The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, World Economic Forum, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation jointly propose these recommendations.
When he returned to Washington, he called his top homeland security adviser into the Oval Office and gave her the galley of historian John M. Barry’s “The Great Influenza,” which told the chilling tale of the mysterious plague that “would kill more people than the outbreak of any other disease in human history.” … “You’ve got to read this,” Fran Townsend remembers the president telling her. “He said, ‘Look, this happens every 100 years. We need a national strategy.'”
Thus was born the nation’s most comprehensive pandemic plan — a playbook that included diagrams for a global early warning system, funding to develop new, rapid vaccine technology, and a robust national stockpile of critical supplies, such as face masks and ventilators, Townsend said.
I am referring, of course, to the medication hydroxychloroquine. When this inexpensive oral medication is given very early in the course of illness, before the virus has had time to multiply beyond control, it has shown to be highly effective, especially when given in combination with the antibiotics azithromycin or doxycycline and the nutritional supplement zinc.
Heather Mac Donald is the Thomas W. Smith Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a contributing editor of City Journal. She earned a B.A. from Yale University, an M.A. in English from Cambridge University, and a J.D. from Stanford Law School. She writes for several newspapers and periodicals, including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The New Criterion, and Public Interest, and is the author of four books, including The War on Cops: How The New Attack on Law and Order Makes Everyone Less Safe and The Diversity Delusion: How Race and Gender Pandering Corrupt the University and Undermine Our Culture.
Dr. Scott Atlas disputes COVID-19 fear mongering tactics from our health official: KUSI Newsroom
SAN DIEGO (KUSI) – As coronavirus cases continue to increase across the United States, health officials and Democrat politicians seem to be using that statistic to fear monger and justify closure orders.
Dr. Scott Atlas of the Hoover Institute, discussed why we don’t need to be scared of the increase spread of coronavirus on Good Morning San Diego with KUSI’s Paul Rudy.
All of this seems prudent. They are following the evidence and adjusting to new data.
June 26, 2020. Avik Roy, Twitter. If you want to understand what’s going on with #COVID19 right now, the best place to look is Florida, because they do the best job of anyone in terms of data transparency. Note the different age distributions of cases, hospitalizations, & deaths in their regular report.
From the start, the public health establishment has projected an air of certitude in its advice and policy prescriptions on COVID-19 belied by a record of error on many of the central questions.
“You’re talking to a very fiscally conservative person,” said Ms. Reinhart, the World Bank’s newly appointed chief economist, in response to a question on the wisdom of borrowing so much in response to the pandemic. “But this is a war. In a war, you worry about winning the war, and then you worry about paying for it.”
Here is what John Kay of the Financial Times has written about science: “The objective of science is not an agreement on a course of action but the pursuit of truth. … Science is a matter of evidence. … The route to knowledge is transparency. … The route to truth is the pluralistic expression of conflicting views. … There is no room in the process for any notion of scientific consensus.”
That was a question explored by respected medical researchers Scott W. Atlas, John R. Birge, Ralph L. Keeney, and Alexander Lipton. The headline on their essay reveals a stark conclusion: “The COVID-19 Shutdown Will Cost Americans Millions of Years of Life.” They calculate the shockingly high cost of the Shut-Down-the-Economy Stress Pandemic, not just to the mental and physical health throughout the country — and not just to the economy — but to living standards for years to come.
According to the Worldometers website, 435 out of every one million Swedes have died from the virus, while the virus has killed 44 out of every million Norwegians.
And it’s not clear Sweden’s economy will be better off than Norway’s this year.
May 27, 2020. Mandatory Masks Aren’t About Safety, They’re About Social Control By Molly McCann. To those looking to benefit politically from emergencies, COVID presents an opportunity to advance plans targeted to transform American freedom and the American way of life.
The “experts” have admitted that masks’ efficacy is usually negligible.
In short, cloth masks are largely symbolic. The science hasn’t changed, but the agenda has. … Implementing mandatory mask policies across a society of 300 million because it makes some people feel better is absurd on its face. But the policy makes a lot of sense if you understand its purpose and usefulness to shift the American mindset.
Last week, a doctor in the Wall Street Journal pointed out that cloth masks—the type worn by the overwhelming majority of the population—are not very effective, echoing Fauci’s earlier admission. The WSJ author noted that even the N95 masks fall short: “They’re considered effective at blocking coronavirus particles only when they’re form fitted and tested to make sure there isn’t any leakage.”
Each state’s experience differs, with each paying its own price in lives or livelihoods. Governors should be judged by their own state’s record going into and coming out of this crisis. It’s a standard that surely elevates governors like Ron DeSantis and Bill Lee—and likely condemns Andrew Cuomo.
First, it is critical that governments inform the public not just about what they know, but also about what they do not know. That is the only way to build the trust needed to fight a lethal virus in a democratic society. No democracy can force its citizens to change their behavior – at least not without incurring high costs. In pursuing a coordinated, collective response, transparency and accurate information is far more effective than coercion.
We parted ways and I just felt a pull to get a couple cans of formula for him, which I purchased, then went to find him. When I gave him the cans, he broke down in tears. He said he had been contemplating how to steal those cans because he’s on a fixed income and couldn’t afford the formula to help his daughter.Then he embraced me. We didn’t have masks. There was no Centers for Disease Control-recommended distance between us at all.All we had was our humanity. And that’s exactly what is being lost during this pandemic.
The coronavirus crisis is real, but the effects on public health are just part of the problem. The long-term health of the economy matters as well. Political actors should be looking at the opportunity costs, trade-offs and risks associated with various courses of action. But that’s not the way of the tyrannical government official, the moral narcissist, or the anonymous informer. They know they are right, and that is all that matters.
The Covid-19 experience has taught us that it’s far better to respond quickly and smartly, with the right technology and mass testing and tracing, rather than only relying on the crudest of shutdowns. If there are second waves of the virus, we shouldn’t repeat the mistakes of the first.
The political divide among the public is stark. According to a CBS News/YouGov poll released Thursday, 88% of Democrats believe the top priority of America is to “stay home, slow virus spread.” Only 12% said the top priority should be “back to work, get economy going.” Sixty-two percent of Republicans, on the other hand, favored getting the economy going as the top priority, while 38% felt staying at home is the top priority. Put another way, the net difference between Democrats and Republicans on what the top priority of the country should be is 50 percentage points.
According to historians, pandemics typically have two types of endings: the medical, which occurs when the incidence and death rates plummet, and the social, when the epidemic of fear about the disease wanes.“When people ask, ‘When will this end?,’ they are asking about the social ending,” said Dr. Jeremy Greene, a historian of medicine at Johns Hopkins.
How will Covid-19 end?
One possibility, historians say, is that the coronavirus pandemic could end socially before it ends medically. People may grow so tired of the restrictions that they declare the pandemic over, even as the virus continues to smolder in the population and before a vaccine or effective treatment is found.
“I think there is this sort of social psychological issue of exhaustion and frustration,” the Yale historian Naomi Rogers said. “We may be in a moment when people are just saying: ‘That’s enough. I deserve to be able to return to my regular life.’”
The challenge, Dr. Brandt said, is that there will be no sudden victory. Trying to define the end of the epidemic “will be a long and difficult process.”
What is the true infection fatality rate of COVID-19, broken down by age and health status? This is a simple question for which the CDC should have a clear answer by now, accompanied by a readable chart – a chart showing everyone’s demographic risk assessment so that we can better target our infection mitigation efforts. Yet it’s the one thing our government hasn’t done. Wonder why?
May 14, 2020. USA Today. Why coronavirus cases flatten, while deaths rise by John Bacon.
The national curve finally appears to be flattening – for now.
The Johns Hopkins dashboard, which provides data on the coronavirus outbreak, shows the rise of confirmed cases and daily deaths in the U.S. may be slowing, even as the national death total approaches 100,000. Worldometer statistics, run by the data company Dadax, hint at steady declines.
May 12, 2020, Foreign Affairs. Sweden’s Coronavirus Strategy Will Soon Be the World’s. Herd Immunity Is the Only Realistic Option—the Question Is How to Get There Safely By Nils Karlson, Charlotta Stern, and Daniel B. Klein
There are good reasons for countries to begin easing their restrictions. It will take several years to tally the total number of deaths, bankruptcies, layoffs, suicides, mental health problems, losses to GDP and investments, and other costs attributable not just to the virus but to the measures used to fight it. It should already be obvious, however, that the economic and social costs of lockdowns are enormous:
“Just as we come out of our holes and see what 25 percent unemployment looks like,” she said, “we may also see what collective rage looks like.”
The problem, Garrett added, is bigger than Trump and older than his presidency. America has never been sufficiently invested in public health. The riches and renown go mostly to physicians who find new and better ways to treat heart disease, cancer and the like. The big political conversation is about individuals’ access to health care.
But what about the work to keep our air and water safe for everyone, to design policies and systems for quickly detecting outbreaks, containing them and protecting entire populations? Where are the rewards for the architects of that?
The coronavirus has touched almost every country on earth, but its impact has seemed capricious.
The question of why the virus has overwhelmed some places and left others relatively untouched is a puzzle that has spawned numerous theories and speculations but no definitive answers. That knowledge could have profound implications for how countries respond to the virus, for determining who is at risk and for knowing when it’s safe to go out again.
There are already hundreds of studies underway around the world looking into how demographics, preexisting conditions and genetics might affect the wide variation in impact.
Schinecker said the tests are an important step in determining whether someone may have immunity, but acknowledged that more research is required to determine whether antibodies protect people from being reinfected.
But if previous outbreaks have proven anything, it’s that hunts for vaccines are unpredictable. “I don’t think any vaccine has been developed quickly,” Offit cautions. “I’d be really amazed if we had something in 18 months.”
“What I’ve seen across the country is so many people give up their liberties for just a little bit of security,” she continued. “And they don’t have to do that. If a leader will take too much power in a time of crisis, that is how we lose our country. So I felt like I’ve had to use every single opportunity to talk about why we slow things down, we make decisions based on science and facts and make sure that we’re not letting emotion grab a hold of the situation.”
If people stick with measures to contain the virus, death rates will eventually trickle down to zero, but only after almost everyone has been infected, assuming they are then immune. If we’re lucky, we’ll slow things down enough to never truly overwhelm the hospitals, and if we’re really lucky we’ll slow things down long enough to benefit from a vaccine or a treatment.
Apr 12, 2020. American Greatness. The Thin Façade of Authority As we continue to debate about numerators and denominators in determining the real impact of this virus, one common denominator remains certain about the elites advising, crafting, and developing our response: they aren’t touched by the impact of their decisions. By Victor Davis Hanson
So far in this crisis, our elite have let us down in a manner the muscularly wise have never done. Botched Models, Bad Advice
Apr 12, 2020. Herd Immunity vs. Herd Mentality Although we do not yet know every detail of the end of our infatuation with the coronavirus, it’s clear that the historian of this episode will include a chapter called “Mistakes Were Made.”
It is not, as Surgeon General Adams suggested, like a nationwide series of Pearl Harbors or 9/11s. It is not, as the president has frequently said, “unlike anything we’ve ever seen.” It is a severe seasonal respiratory ailment that will, when all is said and done, probably claim fewer lives than the flu usually does, many fewer than bad years, when upwards of 80,000 die and hundreds of thousands are hospitalized.
the chances of recovery from the coronavirus is about 98% if you catch it.
models show 50% of the population may have already had it.
analysis shows in New York City 70% of the deaths are of those over age 65
The majority of New York’s more than 5,500 deaths due to coronavirus were among men, and 86% of these deaths were among people who already had underlying illnesses like high blood pressure and diabetes,
Of the 5,500 deaths in New York since the first on March the 14th, 61% were men, 39% were women. Sixty-three percent of the deaths were among those age 70 and older while 7% of the cases were those 49 and younger. Of the 4,089 of those who died had at least one other chronic disease, the record showed. The leading underlying illness was high blood pressure, which showed up in 55 of the deaths. Next, diabetes in 1,700 of the deaths, about 37% of the cases. Other top illnesses found in those who died from coronavirus were hyperlipidemia, coronary artery disease, renal disease — that’s kidneys, for those of you in Rio Linda — and dementia.
We don’t have a vaccine for HIV, and that was Dr. Fauci’s specialty.
But do you know the odds of any American getting this virus?” Do we have a one in 10 chance of getting it? One in five chance? What are the circumstances in which our chances or odds increase?
5,500 deaths, 138,000 cases. New York has a population of eight million. So eight-tenths of a percent of the population of New York have contracted the disease.
Dr. Birx explained (Apr 7, 2020 WH brief), that COVID-19 deaths in the United States have “very liberal” recording guidance, noting that anyone who tests positive for the virus and dies would be included in their numbers of coronavirus deaths.
Apr 6, 2020. Quality Progress. Tracking Covid-19. How to let the data tell you what lies ahead By Donald J. Wheeler, Al Pfadt. Kathryn J. Whyte
The first three intervention models—case isolation, home quarantine, and social distancing of those at risk of severe disease—make up an optimal mitigation policy.
“The fourth NPI model was social distancing of the entire population. This model assumes this will reduce contacts outside the household, school, or workplace. The fifth NPI model was the closure of all schools and 75 percent of all universities.”
The model, from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, now projects 81,766 deaths in the United States through Aug. 1, with most of the fatalities occurring by the middle of May. The IHME team projected a range of between 49,431 and 136,401 for the same period.
Apr 6, 2020. RealClearPolitics. An Advantaged Disease, Indeed COMMENTARY By William J. Bennett & Seth Leibsohn
Our officials and media have warned us of 2 million deaths in the United States. Then 200,000 deaths. Then 100,000 to 240,000. This needs to stop. There have been a total of 68,000 coronavirus deaths worldwide. And we are told we will see, just in America, three to four times that number. Does that even pass the plausibility test?
U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams warned Sunday amid the coronavirus pandemic that the week ahead would be the “hardest and the saddest” of “most Americans’ lives.”
“This is going to be the hardest and the saddest week of most Americans’ lives,” Adams said on “Fox News Sunday.”
“This is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment, our 9/11 moment, only it’s not going to be localized; it’s going to be happening all over the country,” Adams said.
Apr 4, 2020. USA Today. Stop the panic. Don’t let the coronavirus win. COVID-19 is a public health emergency, but precautions must be proportionate to the risk. The cure can’t be worse than the disease. By Alex Berezow
Obviously, a total economic collapse would tear at the fabric of society and also pose a threat to public health. And it raises the specter that our “cure” for COVID-19 may be far more harmful than the disease itself.
In addition to the annual flu death toll mentioned above, car accidents claim another 40,000 American lives each year. Though the comparison is imperfect because car crashes aren’t infectious, the point is that we accept these risks as a matter of routine. Why? Because the alternative — banning cars and shutting down everyday life — is unacceptable. As it turns out, dying is one of the risks of living
COVID-19 is without a doubt a public health emergency. However, precautions must be proportionate to the risk, and the pros and cons of every policy must be carefully weighed. In the midst of what appears to be outright global panic, it seems as if few of our leaders are actually doing this.
Now, in a divided country, efficient and farsighted government is necessary to overcome obstacles unprecedented in magnitude and global scope. Sustaining the public trust is crucial to social solidarity, to the relation of societies with each other, and to international peace and stability.
The crisis effort, however vast and necessary, must not crowd out the urgent task of launching a parallel enterprise for the transition to the post-coronavirus order.
April 2, 2020. New York Is the Epicenter of the World. The hidden gift in this pandemic is that we learn how to prepare for the worse one still to come. By Peggy Noonan.
Rowe also decried “the unintended consequences of ranking Safety above everything else,” which he said is “precisely what our leaders are doing right now.” He asked his fans to imagine if society treated automobile deaths “with the same frenzied, up-to-the minute drama as each new virus infection. … Would any of us ever drive again?” Rowe continued:
I don’t know if we’re overacting, but the manner in which the information is being disseminated suggests the situation is already catastrophic. Is it? According to Dr. Ioannidis, we’re treating a virus that MIGHT have devastating consequences, in a way that will GUARANTEE devastating consequences.
They publish their own models of the virus spread. It shows how many people will need hospital care: the system, they say, can cope. And when asked, they say they don’t think Imperial College has made a better call.
Apr 1, 2020. The Nation. Exclusive: The Military Knew Years Ago That a Coronavirus Was Coming. The Pentagon warned the White House about a shortage of ventilators, face masks and hospital beds in 2017—but the Trump administration did nothing. By Ken Klippenstein
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya is a professor of medicine at Stanford University. He is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a senior fellow at both the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and the Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute. His March 24, 2020, article in the Wall Street Journal questions the premise that “coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines.” In the article he suggests that “there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.” In this edition of Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson we asked Dr. Bhattacharya to defend that statement and describe to us how he arrived at this conclusion. We get into the details of his research, which used data collected from hotspots around the world and his background as a doctor, a medical researcher, and an economist. It’s not popular right now to question conventional wisdom on sheltering in place, but Dr. Bhattacharya makes a strong case for challenging it, based in economics and science.
Mar 24, 2020. WSJ. Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say? Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. By Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya
Mar 31, 2020. RealClearPolitics.com Time for a Second Opinion. COMMENTARY By William J. Bennett & Seth Leibsohn
To help restore a sense of calm and normalcy, we ought to look at this disease at its center of harm and engage something like a more vertical strategy as Thomas Friedman recommended, “sequestering those among us most likely to be killed or suffer long-term damage by exposure to coronavirus infection … while basically treating the rest of society the way we have always dealt with familiar threats like the flu.” The horizontal strategy of “restricting the movement and commerce of the entire population, without consideration of varying risks for severe infection,” is too blunt, too paralyzing — and too haunting.
About 40% of Indiana’s intensive care unit beds are open, said State Health Commissioner Kris Box said, but that availability is expected to change dramatically in the next few weeks.
Mar 28, 2020. American Greatness. It’s Not a Choice Between Lives or the Economy by Roger Kimball. President Trump has shown great leadership during this manufactured crisis. Let’s hope he continues to ponder his observation that we do not want to get ourselves into a situation in which the cure is worse than the disease.
That said, I continue to believe that shutting down the U.S. economy was insane (also here, here, and here). I maintain, in retrospect, this episode will furnish ample material for an addendum to Charles Mackay’s Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.
Unfortunately, there is no arguing with insanity. As one friend of mine likes to note, arguing with such madness is like arguing with a hurricane. It is completely ineffective, indeed counterproductive, because making arguments at such a time is likely to distract one from taking precautions and making preparations.
As the Austrian school of economics demonstrates in the calculation theory of socialism, no central planning body has the capacity to organize society based on coercive mandates …
To conclude, with transparency and diligence the Taiwanese government has avoided many problems. The key is that the Taiwanese government and the Taiwanese people understand that the individual’s own responsibility and actions are essential to suppressing the coronavirus pandemic, not a mandatory massive shutdown. This is what the world needs to learn.
Includes a control chart. Viewing the data in its entirety and over time offers a clearer window into the trajectory of the outbreak, one that isn’t clouded by noise and can detect meaningful differences in patterns that can inform official public guidance and decision-making.
“With all the talk of ‘flattening the curve,’ we think the approach we used and our analysis sheds light on early signals of when the increase in new deaths peaks and the curve begins to flatten,” Perla and Provost say.
“The predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground on either China, South Korea, or Italy,” she said. … Birx also addressed reports that raised the alarm of New York City hospitals running out of ICU beds, ventilators, and creating “Do Not Resuscitate” (DNR) policies for patients. … She revealed that she spoke with health officials in New York, that there were still ICU beds and 1000-2000 ventilators available, and that there were no DNR policies enacted. … “We don’t have evidence of that right now,” she said.
British scientist Neil Ferguson ignited the world’s drastic response to the novel Wuhan coronavirus when he published the bombshell report predicting 2.2 million Americans and more than half a million Brits would be killed. After both the U.S. and U.K. governments effectively shut down their citizens and economies, Ferguson is walking back his doomsday scenarios.
Ferguson’s report from Imperial College, which White House and other officials took seriously, said that if the U.S. and U.K. did not shut down for 18 months, and isolation measures were not taken, “we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months.” His “models” showed overflowing hospitals and ICU beds.
TIMELINE ONE: ONE TO TWO MONTHS I should note that the experts I spoke with think this timeline is highly unlikely
TIMELINE TWO: THREE TO FOUR MONTHS – In this timeline, Hanage speculated, “we learn some things about the virus that make us much more confident about being able to resume various activities.
TIMELINE THREE: FOUR TO 12 MONTHS. One big unresolved question about COVID-19 is whether, like the flu, its spread will slow substantially during the summer.
TIMELINE FOUR: 12 TO 18 MONTHS (OR LONGER). researchers around the world will have been scrambling to develop a vaccine. Spring 2021 is about the earliest anyone expects one to be available.
Mar 26, 2020. AFP/Yahoo News. Coronavirus could become seasonal: top US scientist Anthony Fauci, who leads research into infectious diseases at the National Institutes of Health, told a briefing the virus was beginning to take root in the southern hemisphere, where winter is on its way.
We have to open up the economy by mid-April or the consequences will be a lost generation. It will be harder to do so when the news is counting deaths in the thousands, and possibly tens of thousands. There are steps we can and must take to re-open our economy in a careful and deliberate manner.
Looking at data from Italy, the average age of patients who have succumbed to the virus is 78.5, not the age of the American workforce. A full 99 percent of those who have perished in Italy have a major pre-existing condition. We know exactly who the most vulnerable are, and we need to protect them.
First, we must quarantine and support the old and at risk.
Second, we ensure we have the capability to institute mass testing. This involves not only test kits but the temperature guns that are so ubiquitous to East Asia.
Third, if you are sick, stay home. If you are not sick, you can return to the labor force. Businesses should support flexibility for employees to work from home and care for sick family members.
We will not be perfect in our steps to restart our economy. In fact, doing so will evoke the painful memories of a wartime economy. A vaccine for COVID-19 and a policy solution to our long-term growth and debt issues will come in time. But first, we must take the right steps to restart an American engine of prosperity that will make fighting present and future viruses exponentially more manageable.
Mar 25, 2020. Atlantic. This Is Just the Beginning. by Yascha Moun. People who now advocate that we “choose the economy” are not being honest about the consequences of that decision.
In Germany, the government assumes that six or seven out of every 10 citizens could get it.
The World Health Organization has estimated the case fatality rate to be 3.4 percent, meaning that about one in every 33 patients will die.
Let us further assume that the true fatality rate turns out to be much lower than the current figures suggest—say, about one in 100—and that our hospitals somehow figure out a way to manage the flood of patients that would stream through their doors in need of lifesaving treatment.
In that implausibly sanguine scenario, more than 1 million Americans would succumb to COVID-19 in the next few months. That is about as many people as the country lost in the Civil War, World War I, and World War II—combined.
The current guidance assumes a highly optimistic scenario, where we get very lucky. That’s not good advice, at all. We need to prepare for a moderately pessimistic scenario if we want to protect quality in our organizations.
Washington (AFP) – The Pentagon is assuming the coronavirus epidemic in the United States will last at least several months, and that some countries are at risk of “political chaos,” its top officials said Tuesday.
The first coronavirus case in the U.S. and South Korea was detected on January 21. Since then, South Korea has effectively contained the coronavirus without shutting down its economy or quarantining tens of millions of people. Instead, the Korean government has pursued a “trace, test, and treat” strategy that identifies and isolates those infected with the coronavirus while allowing healthy people to go about their normal lives. Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan have also managed to contain the virus via a combination of travel restrictions, social distancing, and heightened hygiene.
If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all. “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.
The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.
Clearly, America was unprepared for this pandemic. … And there will be time enough to assess responsibility for the lack of surgical masks, medical gowns, rubber gloves, respirators, ventilators and hospital beds. The immediate imperative is to produce those beds and that equipment and get it delivered to doctors, nurses and hospital staff, the front-line troops in the battle to control the virus.
NAFTALI BENNET: I want to share with you the single most important insight of the entire corona epidemic. The most important thing — more than social distancing, more than testing, testing, testing, more than anything else — is to separate old people from younger people.
While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place. … “What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”
Jails in California, New York, Ohio, Texas and at least a dozen other states are sending low-level offenders and elderly or sickly inmates home early due to coronavirus fears. At other jails and prisons around the country, officials are banning visitors, restricting inmates’ movement and screening staff.
May 21, 2020. American Greatness. COVID-19, the Elephant, and the House Cat The really scary thing about this latest health scare is not the disease but the unexpected depths of passivity it revealed. By Roger Kimball •
Mar 20, 2020. Medium Did You Have Coronavirus Without Knowing It? Health experts say the virus has likely been in some U.S. communities for weeks and some people have surely had it without realizing By Markham Heid
“In fact, symptoms for most people are quite mild,” says Dr. Sandro Galea, MD, a physician and dean of Boston University School of Public Health. He says that up to 80% of people who contract the virus have only weak symptoms — such as a low-grade fever or cough — and that they may have mistakenly attributed these to the common cold or some other minor ailment. “It’s definitely possible to have it and not realize it,” he says.
Riley says that the only way to look for a past infection is with an antibody test,which may not be able to tell the difference between Covid-19 and other common varieties of the coronavirus. And, as of right now, this test doesn’t exist for the Covid-19.
Test or no test, if you think you may have had Covid-19, you may also be wondering if you can get it again. “Good question,” says Boston U’s Galea. “That remains unresolved, but there likely is some immunity once one has had Covid-19. Whether that immunity is complete or not is less clear.” That means if you get it again, you’re probably more likely to have a mild or asymptomatic case.
The novel coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. will last at least 18 months and “could include multiple waves of illness,” prompting “significant shortages” for consumers and overwhelming the healthcare system, a federal government contingency plan leaked to the media this week warned.
President Donald Trump’s anti-coronavirus plan, dated March 13 and delivered to policymakers, echoed the findings of a March 16 report by the U.K.’s Imperial College, which also found that the outbreak could “potentially” last “18 month or more” in the U.S. and strain the healthcare system “many times over.”
Governors in 27 states have activated parts of their National Guard units to counter the effects of the contagious virus, known as COVID-19, with medical testing, transportation, logistics support and, potentially, law enforcement responsibilities, he said.
If the situation requires it, governors can order the Guard to assist with police patrols and enforce laws — “anything that the law enforcement capacity normally does, they could be augmented with National Guard troops,” he explained.
“Do I see it happening now? I don’t see any demand signal that’s demanding that we are going to use the National Guard in that kind of scenario, but they could,” Lengyel said. “Governors could under the command and control of law enforcement in their states, they could use their National Guard.”
Mar 19, 2020. HAARETZ., Israel News. Trump Is Right About the Coronavirus. The WHO Is Wrong,’ Says Israeli Expert. Dr. Dan Yamin has developed models for predicting the spread of infectious diseases, and helped curb the Ebola epidemic. He says the coronavirus could take some 13,000 lives in Israel – but there’s cause for optimism By Oded Carmeli
Although it’s impossible to say how many Americans will die because of the new coronavirus, under a reasonable set of assumptions the number of fatalities could be high — potentially in the hundreds of thousands or more.
We’ve started with an estimate from a University of Nebraska public health researcher, Dr. James Lawler, that was recently presented to hospital executives: 480,000 American deaths over the course of the illness known as Covid-19.
Leading causes of death in U.S.
Heart disease 655,381; Cancer 599,274; Coronavirus (estimate) 480,00
Extensive pandemic preparation plans exist on paper, but Indianapolis has not had to put them to the test — yet.
“The key thing is that there is ongoing modeling of this sort of thing and simulation so these are scenarios that have been contemplated,” Doehring said. “They just haven’t been reality.”
A recent CDC projection estimated that the U.S. coronavirus epidemic could infect between 160 million and 214 million people over a period of more than a year — and kill anywhere from 200,000 to 1.7 million people in the country. A top CDC disease modeler presented the estimates to CDC officials and epidemic experts during a conference call last month, the New York Times revealed on Friday. The scenario did not factor in the efforts now underway to address the epidemic, but rather what could happen if no action was taken to slow the spread of the disease.
Most Americans have a low risk of being exposed, health experts say.
Most who get sick will have a mild or moderate case.
High-risk groups include the elderly or people with underlying conditions such as hypertension or diabetes.
The Indiana State Department of Health hotline is 317-233-7125 from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. and 317-233-1325 afterward.
Symptoms are fever, cough and shortness of breath, according to the CDC. Call your health provider before going to a clinic so health workers can prepare.
Protect health workers first: Supplies of masks and other protective gear are already running low in places, so health providers should get priority on the theory that if doctors and nurses get sick, it’ll put all patients — including those suffering from ailments other than Covid-19 — at risk.
Don’t cut off trade: Many ingredients for important medicines come from China, and it doesn’t help anybody if, in seeking to prevent coronavirus infections, you run out of drugs to treat cardiac arrest.
Don’t hoard medicines: It creates shortages
Cross-train your employees so that an illness of a key worker doesn’t sideline your business.
Oh, and wash your hands, but you should be doing that anyway
Note: The “Score” is determined from the Preliminary Engineering Report (PER) – link to a copy provided below.
July 13, 2018. Supporting Letter – Brown County Health Department Brown County Health Department Letter 051418. Documents the allegations, anecdotes, speculations, conjecture, and assumptions used to justify this project:
2,904 properties; 2002 require a septic system (69%)
Average build date is 1960. ” This means the average age of septic systems is 58 years old.
The first septic code in effect in 1977 to 1990. “Based on this information it would be logical to conclude that the average septic system is 58 years old … and, it would only be fair to assume many may not be functioning as originally planned and may be failing …”
“In addition, I have attached documented history of water tests … and found detectable levels of E. Coli in most bodies of water tested “
1.2.6 Water quality in the service areas will be improved with the installation of the proposed wastewater system, as current failing on-site septic systems that degrade the water quality will be eliminated.
1.2.8 Socio-Economic Issues. There will be no negative effect on the economics or location of minority and/or low-income populations.
1.2.9.3 Open Space and Recreational Opportunities. The proposed project’s construction and operation will neither create nor destroy open space and recreational opportunities.
Note: They are asking for use of land that was donated to Parks and Recreation
1.4 Community Engagement .. Letters of support from “1998”.
3.1 Wastewater Facilities Needs
The Brown County Health Department has reported numerous problems with the existing on-site septic systems within the planning area over the last 20 years. The soils within the study area are not conducive to the proper operation of onsite soil absorption septic systems. Problems range from too small of lot size to soil impermeability or permeability and hilly terrain, which limit the space available for an on-site septic system. Pollution of surface water and ground water resources has been a major health issue and concern throughout the study area. Nearly all of the septic systems in the study area have experienced some problems, many have experienced complete failure. In the past there has been some modifications and repairs made in the Woodland Lake area due to inoperable on-site septic systems. Soil absorption fields are clogged, causing holding tanks to fill to their capacity, overflow, and discharge untreated wastewater directly onto the ground. The Bean Blossom business area has been in a state of decline since most all of the businesses do not have the necessary land available to either upgrade or even repair their septic systems. The Woodland Lake, Little Fox Lake, Freeman Ridge Road and Greasy Creek Road Areas has many homes with grossly undersized septic systems on lots with no more space available for needed absorption field expansion, replacement, or repairs.The Brown County Health Department has cited several homeowners within the planning area for septic tank and absorption field system failures. That office has denied issuing septic permits to several potential businesses and residences because of inadequate space, poor soil structure or seasonal high ground water tables that cannot be successfully lowered for a septic system. In some cases, expensive mound systems have been the only type of on-site disposal system that could be approved. Because many septic tank and absorption field systems are more than 50 years old, future additional failures are anticipated.The Brown County Health Department has also conducted stream analysis testing at several locations throughout the Bean Blossom area. These tests revealed E coli counts of 2,400 parts per million at a location downstream of the 27-lot mobile home park, and 690 parts per million at a roadside ditch located on the north side of Covered Bridge Road.The Bill Monroe Music Park and Campground is referred to as the “Mecca of Bluegrass Music” hosting several major Bluegrass Music events during the summer. The music park and campground owner expends considerable amounts of money for holding tank pump-out and disposal of their wastewater, and for 3 – 2 port-a-let rental. The music park and campground owner and maintenance personnel have expressed a need for a permanent solution to their wastewater management dilemma. A representative from the music park and campground had previously expressed a desire to provide sewer hook ups to approximately 35 campsites located at the front of the facilities should a permanent wastewater system be available. Refer to Appendix G for information to further document the project need.
In 2017, Evan Werling, {President of the Brown County Regional Sewer District (BCRSD) Board requests that the State Deprarmtn of Health conduct a “Boots on the Ground” survey. The intent of the survey was to help identify the extent and scope of a problem in the Bean Blossom area to help validate the need for a sewer plant. The Health Department refused to support this survey. This lack of support for validating a need led to the resignation of 3 of 5 board members.
May 9, 2017. Democrat. Resigning sewer board volunteers claim project obstruction By Sara Clifford. Three of the five members of the Brown County Regional Sewer District Board have resigned amid allegations that the Brown County Health Department has…
Werling lambasted past sewer board members and the health board for a lack of detailed documentation about the need for the sewer project, and alleged “sabotage” by the health department when the sewer board tried to obtain a “boots on the ground” survey of septic system failures in the Bean Blossom area to show the need for the project.
He also brought up cost omissions in the sewer project engineering report, which a previous sewer board commissioned with county money.
At least four engineering reports have been done since 2001.
Three of the five members of the Brown County Regional Sewer District Board resigned Tuesday night amid allegations that the Brown County Health Board, health department and past sewer board members have been derailing the Bean Blossom sewer project and disparaging the current sewer board along the way.
His presentation touched on a lack of documentation about the need for the sewer project, which has been in the works for more than 14 years; problems in the sewer project engineering report which a previous sewer board commissioned with county money; lack of health department cooperation in trying to obtain a “boots on the ground” survey of septic system failures in the Bean Blossom area to show sewer need; and name-calling which Leggett said she received at a health board meeting last fall.
Rochelle K. Owen, AICP
Director of Community Programs | Indiana
Rural Development
United States Department of Agriculture rochelle.owen@usda.gov
Phone: (317)295-5767 | Fax: (855)541-9019 www.rd.usda.gov
For individuals and/or groups that want support in applying and testing out some improvement strategies, let me know – we are glad to help. The following link provides additional information.Brown County Leader Network –Support services and planning guides. Includes guidance on conducting an assessment, and working through the best options for needed changes.
Biddle shared fears that the uptick in visitors could be putting residents at risk of exposure to the coronavirus. … “Please, Gov. Holcomb, do the right thing by Brown County and close the state properties — Brown County state park, Yellowwood campground — and discourage the continued unnecessary and unessential travel into our community,” Biddle said, reading from a letterthe commissioners were planning to send to Holcomb
“WATCH.” Means that conditions are threatening to the safety of the public. During a “watch” local travel advisory, only essential travel, such as to and from work or in emergency situations, is recommended, and emergency action plans should be implemented by businesses, schools, government agencies, and other organizations.
“I am absolutely convinced that if tourists and people are allowed to shelter in place and hunker down in guest cabins, that they will absolutely increase the numbers we have of sick people and deplete what little resources we do have,” said Dr. Norman Oestrike, Brown County’s health officer.
“My opinion, we are a rural county, and we need to do everything we can to protect our residents,” Oestrike said. “… There are other areas of the country that have shifted to tremendous hot spots of this disease from visitors, visitors who want to quarantine and hang out in the rental properties, the resorts, the beaches. Our demographics are such that we have a lot of older folks who are particularly vulnerable, but we have very limited resources, and if visitors come in large numbers, they expose everyone.
“Anyone who comes to this county can be healthy and spread the disease,” he said. “And the World Health Organization, the CDC, the Indiana State Department of Health and yours truly, your local health officer, absolutely believe that we have to stop travel and shelter at home. And home is not a tourist or guest home.”
County Crisis Management. A good outline that explains a Four-Phase Crisis Management strategy. Crisis management refers to the process in which the government of a country or the management of an organization develops and implements a plan on how to limit the damage from a particular crisis.
Prevention. Planning is a very important part of crisis management. This began after 9/11 with funding and training provided by the federal government for the “first responders” (Emergency Management – county and state levels). DoD also created the Northern Command (NORTHCOM).
Preparedness. Once an effective crisis management plan is in place, it should be reviewed and updated on an annual basis and tested periodically.
Includes ongoing training, certification, and participation in training exercises
Response. The crisis response phase is that in which the actual crisis occurs. Having a dedicated crisis management plan and team allows an entity to tackle a crisis or disaster in a calm way, thereby minimizing loss of life, property or reputation.
Recovery The process of recovery from any crisis can take a long time. When the crisis is over, the focus has to shift on rebuilding, which can be time-consuming and expensive.
Newspaper: Brown County Democrat – Special Advertising Sections. In order to help your business, we are preparing a special advertising section at a very affordable rate and with liberal payment terms.
The county’s website, http://www.browncounty-in.gov has a new COVID-19 response tab that will be updated with how the county departments will operate during the health crisis along with contact information for each department.
The COAD help hotline is 812-988-0001 and there is also a Facebook page.
Armstrong and Frost recently activated the county’s emergency management plan and they opened the county’s emergency operations center on March 13 “in an effort to coordinate the response and ensure we are prepared to assist our citizens and various public and private partners.”
On March 10, 2020, Ethel Morgan of HomeTown Engineering LLC presented the findings from a regionalization study of wastewater treatment options for the Helmsburg, Bean Blossom, Trevalc, and Lake Lemon areas. This study was funded by an Indiana Finance Authority, Regional Assistance Program (RAP) grant. This grant was supported by the Director, State Revolving Fund (SRF), as well as by the Helmsburg and Bean Blossom Regional Sewer District (RSD) boards.
The purpose of the RAP study was to provide findings and “not” recommendations. Ms. Morgan stated that it “appears” that a one plant solution for the area was not the best option. The study indicated that two plants might be needed to serve the area. Options could include a plant in Bean Blossom and in the Trevlac area. A plant in Trevlac could serve Lake Lemon and Helmsburg with the potential of lowering the monthly costs for Helmsburg residents.
Following this meeting, the Brown County Regional Sewer District (BCRSD) Board conducted its monthly meeting. At this meeting, they selected a contractor – Lochmueller Group to conduct a county-wide wastewater treatment infrastructure strategic planning study that is expected to take 14 months to complete. This study will provide additional information. It will include numerous public meetings and, along with the RAP study, can result in the additional analysis needed to arrive at the best wastewater treatment decisions for the county.
Also, at the BCRSD meeting, there was a presentation from the Lake Lemon Environmental Cooperative. The aim of this non-profit group is to lead efforts to acquire sewer service for their fellow residents. This could be accomplished through a separate Regional Sewer District (RSD) or in cooperation with the BCRSD. The Cooperative identified their needs and desire for immediate sewer service. They self-funded a concept plan, have identified that when there are substantial rains, water levels can rise to the point where they can have over 200 flooded and failed septic systems. When these systems fail, they also contribute to the contamination of Lake Lemon. They have obtained support from Monroe county that owns Lake Lemon, who supports the project and will provide the needed land for a plant (s). The Cooperative also has the support of its community.
Regarding the number of potential customers – referred to in the RAP study as Equivalent Dwelling Units (EDUs), the number of EDUs that could be served by a plant in the Trevlac area would be 353 for Lake Lemon and 132 for Helmsburg for a total of 485. The number of Bean Blossom EDUs is estimated at only 276. The RAP study included projections of a declining population in Brown County. With fewer potential customers, the selection of technologies and life cycle management costs of wastewater systems are significant considerations.
In contrast, regarding a plant in Bean Blossom, the county commissioners, the current as well as the past two presidents of the BCRSD Board, have all stated that there is no documented evidence of failed residential septic systems in the Bean Blossom area.
Further, current water sampling has not validated indications of human-caused contamination. This information undermines the premise that was used to justify a county-wide RSD. The allegation by a county commissioner in 2013 was that a county-wide RSD and a septic systems management plan was needed to address an “environmental catastrophe” in Bean Blossom – an assertion that has still not been supported with evidence.
The RAP study also suggests that a de-centralized approach versus a county-wide RSD may be warranted. The infrastructure study could be expanded to include an analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of a local Trevlac and Bean Blossom RSD, as opposed to a county-wide RSD. Board members of the BCRSD are appointed by the commissioners and county council. The Gnaw Bone RSD board will be elected by their ratepayers starting in 2020 and the Helmsburg RSD has requested this same option.
Regarding economic and wastewater treatment related plans and strategies, these could be integrated within the County Comprehensive Plan and updated to reflect a choice for local control as an option for growth and development. The Helmsburg Revitalization Initiative provides a working example of this approach.
Despite the information presented in the RAP study and information provided by Lake Lemon residents, the BCRSD board reinforced their intent to move forward with the Bean Blossom project as the highest priority in the county. The BCRSD also intends to pursue the acquisition of land from Parks and Recreation. The fact that current landowners in the Bean Blossom area were not interested in selling property for a sewer plant does not bode well for the BCRSD’s ability to obtain the estimated 190 required easement agreements from current landowners.
The Helmsburg and Brown County RSDs support for the RAP study and the BCRSD leadership in obtaining a grant for a county-wide wastewater infrastructure study is commendable. However, the Bean Blossom project should be “delayed” until there is a more comprehensive analysis that identifies the best development and wastewater treatment decisions for the county.
Brown County is a 2.0 . As a former defense and military analyst, assessing the capabilities of groups, organizations, countries (e.g., systems) was one of the tools of the trade.
A Way Ahead – Post COVID-19 recovery and prosperity
