COVID-19 – Quality Management and Models

June 30, 2020. Quality Digest. Are We Getting Better Yet? How is the worldwide pandemic progressing? By Donald Wheeler

  • Although we may know what needs to be done, the United States as a whole is not dealing effectively with the opportunistic infection of Covid-19.
  • Since we become infectious to others two to three days before we even know we are infected ourselves, social distancing, hand washing, and the use of face masks are still our most effective personal interventions at present.

Total deaths per million: Here we find that the United States’ value of 364.1 is sixth from the bottom, behind the deaths per capita of France, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. However, it is instructive to compare the United States’ death rate with other first-world countries such as Australia (4.1), South Korea (5.4), Japan (7.5), Israel (34.2), Germany (107.1), Switzerland (197.3), and Canada (225.2).

May 4, 2020. LinkedIn Post – Control Charts – Ontario

May 4, 2020.  Quality Digest. Waiting for the Covid-19 Peak.  While this worldwide, unintended experiment continues we won’t immediately know if we have passed the peak.  By Donald J. Wheeler and Al Pfadt.

  • Sweden began to flatten its curve around April 12, but the Swedes were less aggressive in their efforts5. By the end of April they had lowered their average growth rate to 2.9 percent and had a total of 20,300 cases. Thus, while starting from the same amounts, in one month Norway added only 3,200 new cases while Sweden added 15,900. Such is the marvel of compound growth rates.
  • With a growth rate of 2.9 percent per day Sweden is on track to double its number of confirmed cases in 24 days (May 24). If the Swedes can further flatten their curve they can postpone this doubling and gain time before reaching 40,000 cases. With a growth rate of 0.7 percent per day Norway’s doubling time is 99 days. If the Norwegians maintain this rate of growth, they will not reach 15,000 cases until mid-July.
  • And we need to continue to try to flatten our cumulative curves simply because a flatter curve buys more time.

May 4, 2020. Quality Digest – Comment. An interesting contrast to our approach

  • I hope it is not bad form to be the first person to comment on our article, but I wanted to call attention to a link that I just discovered today that represents an entirely different approach to the one Don and I illustrate in this article.
  • The web address http://covid-measures.stanford.edu/ presents interactive models that permit one to ” try out” different assumptions regarding various aspects of Covid 19 in terms of certain parameters such as demand for hospital beds or the anticipated number of fatalities associated with certain containment scenarios.
  • I hope readers don’t get the impression from our article that we reject the utility of such models.
  • However, they serve a very different purpose than the one we take and both should be thought of as complementing each other.

Model – Stanford Univ.  Potential Long-Term Intervention Strategies for COVID-19

Coronavirus Policy Response Simulator: Health and Economic Effects of State Reopenings

Apr 28, 2020. Deming Institute.  India Fights COVID-19 with Control Charts BY 

April 15, 2020.  Can SPC save the world?  By Thomas Pyzdek

Apr 6, 2020. Quality Progress. Tracking Covid-19. How to let the data tell you what lies ahead By Donald J. Wheeler,  Al Pfadt. Kathryn J. Whyte

  • The first three intervention models—case isolation, home quarantine, and social distancing of those at risk of severe disease—make up an optimal mitigation policy. 
    • “The fourth NPI model was social distancing of the entire population. This model assumes this will reduce contacts outside the household, school, or workplace. The fifth NPI model was the closure of all schools and 75 percent of all universities.”

Mar 26, 2020. US News and World Report.   America Is Approaching a Deadly Tipping Point in the Coronavirus Pandemic, U.S. News Analysis Shows.  An examination of daily coronavirus deaths by country shows the U.S. is on a dangerous path that’s poised to worsen. By Steve Sternberg and Gaby Galvin  

  • Includes a control (SPC) chart.  Viewing the data in its entirety and over time offers a clearer window into the trajectory of the outbreak, one that isn’t clouded by noise and can detect meaningful differences in patterns that can inform official public guidance and decision-making.

    “With all the talk of ‘flattening the curve,’ we think the approach we used and our analysis sheds light on early signals of when the increase in new deaths peaks and the curve begins to flatten,” Perla and Provost say.

Mar 25, 2020. Quality Digest. The One Huge Mistake Quality Professionals Make in Preparing for Covid-19. Businesses need to think pessimistically in order to survive

  • The current guidance assumes a highly optimistic scenario, where we get very lucky. That’s not good advice, at all. We need to prepare for a moderately pessimistic scenario if we want to protect quality in our organizations.

Mar 25, 2020. Zero-Hedge. 12 Experts Question The COVID-19 Panic by Tyler Durden

  • Storm in a Tea Cup? LinkedIn. There is no question that the media is effective in whipping up emotions. Is the COVID-19 panic a storm in a tea cup?  by Dr. Tony Burns.

 

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